Where will the relations between Egypt and Iran reach after the Riyadh-Tehran agreement?

According to the report of Fars International News Agency, Egypt’s Foreign Ministry, following the signing of the agreement on the resumption of relations between Riyadh and Tehran in Beijing, last Friday (March 10), announced that “it is following this agreement with interest and is looking forward to it.” The agreement will help reduce tension in the region.

In its statement, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Egypt settled for the same position, but less than 24 hours later; Its presidency issued another statement and announced: “Egypt appreciates this important step and Saudi Arabia’s approach in this regard.” At the same time, he expressed hope that this development will have a positive impact on Iran’s regional and international policies.

On the other hand, “Nasser Kanani”, the spokesman of the Iranian Foreign Ministry, in a press conference on Monday (March 13), emphasized: “Egypt is an important country, and Iran and Egypt are important to each other in the region, and the region has the positive capacity and synergies of Iran and Egypt.” needs. The last bilateral talks between the officials of the two countries were held on the sidelines of the Baghdad-2 summit in Amman, the capital of Jordan. Short but positive talks were held between the Foreign Minister of our country and the President of Egypt, Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, on the sidelines of this meeting. We definitely believe in the necessity of taking new steps to improve relations between the two countries. But in any case, political relations between countries are always a bilateral path, and we must see what the will of the other side is in the bilateral path.

“Al-Arabi Al-Jadeed” newspaper published in London near Qatar, by publishing a report on this matter, investigated the issue of where Iran-Egypt relations will go after the Riyadh-Tehran agreement.

Egypt’s flexible neutrality

Brigadier General Safwat Al-Ziyat, a military researcher and former officer of the Egyptian Armed Forces, says that “Egypt’s position towards the unstable nature of relations in the Gulf [فارس] With Iran, it is still based on adherence to flexible neutrality, without significant interference, and this position is absolutely correct.

In an interview with al-Arabi al-Jadeed, he clarified: “This is what Cairo will work on in the future, especially after it learned its lesson in leaving this approach in the Qatar and Persian Gulf crises, and after the openings became apparent in this The case was completely sidelined.

Al-Ziyat added: “Egypt is currently involved in a joint international effort to secure maritime navigation and combat organized maritime crimes in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, [مکران] (Bahr al-Arab) and the Indian Ocean through three special task forces (CTFs). The important point was the addition of the fourth joint force CTF 153 on April 17, 2022 to take over maritime security duties and fight against organized crime in the area from the Gulf of Aden and through Bab al-Mandeb to the Red Sea.

He continued that since last December, Egypt has assumed the periodic leadership of this group, therefore, due to its participation in this international maritime effort, it is bound by restrictions related to threats and strict rules of engagement for this international coalition, and this is due to The balanced policies between the conflict parties in the region impose great problems on Egypt.

American-Israeli pressure on Egypt

“Mohammed Nisthawi”, an expert in international relations, says that no clear position has been shown by Egypt so far; Therefore, we can wait to see Egypt’s clear position regarding these understandings between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the coming days, unless America and Israel put pressure on Egypt.

He added: “Egypt needs a lot of money and the International Monetary Fund requires it to drastically reduce the value of the local currency.” While its allies from the Persian Gulf countries have closed the money taps, therefore, Cairo does not take a special position regarding this understanding. Therefore, it does not have a position regarding these understandings.

It is not beneficial to continue cutting ties

“Abdullah Al-Ashael”, the former assistant minister of foreign affairs of Egypt, believes that “continuing to cut ties between Egypt and Iran is not expedient.” On the contrary, Cairo’s strategic interests lie in the resumption of these relations, and if this happens, it will benefit both countries, especially the Egyptian side.

He explained that securing the waterway of the Suez Canal and ensuring the safe passage of ships through Bab al-Mandab are among Egypt’s advantages in resuming these relations. In addition, the opening of Egypt to Iran will help to boost tourism, and more than ten million Iranian tourists who are eagerly waiting to visit religious places and shrines of Ahl al-Bayt may come to Egypt every year. In addition, there is the possibility of a growing trade exchange between the two countries, which will greatly help Egypt’s faltering economy.

Al-Ashael explained: “Normalizing relations between Egypt and Iran means entering into a crisis with the United States or the Gulf countries [فارس] is not. Opening up to Iran does not mean joining the regional and international blocs that Tehran is involved with. Rather, it may make it easier for Cairo to play a positive role in regional crises in which Iran plays a good role. However, there seems to be no political will on the part of the Egyptian authorities to restore Egypt’s lost regional role.”

Despite all these details, Al-Ash’al, in a conversation with Al-Araby Al-Jadeed, found it unlikely that the two countries would resume their diplomatic relations due to the intensification of American influence on decision-makers in Egypt. Especially since Iran will not make concessions in this regard and will not beg for the resumption of relations with Cairo because it was Egypt that cut off relations in 1979 and Iran, whether during the time of President Hosni Mubarak or after the January Revolution, He reached out to resume these relations, but to no avail.”

The attempt of some to block any convergence between Cairo and Tehran

“Hassan Nafea”, a professor of international relations at Cairo University, says that “there are countries that will try to neutralize any rapprochement between Egypt and Iran, because the role of this convergence will lead to geostrategic changes in the region.” and Tel Aviv will suffer.”

He added: “This convergence, which we hope will be achieved and will lead to a brake on the normalization of Arab countries’ relations with Israel and limit the consequences of the Ibrahim agreement, is something that politicians in Tel Aviv are aware of and consider themselves the biggest losers of this step. In addition, this convergence and the creation of diplomatic channels may also help to reduce the tension in Iraq, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon and make it possible to achieve an important solution for the crises of these countries.

Nafea continued to talk about the impact of this on the Palestinian case and stated: In case of any rapprochement between Egypt and Iran, positive developments will be created at the level of Palestine. The political and military pressures on the Palestinian resistance will decrease and the situation of the resistance will improve, because it will be freed from the politics of the trenches and regional battles and will have a hand in responding to the attacks of the occupying regime. Of course, this depends on the level of seriousness of Saudi Arabia in normalizing relations with Tehran and the existence of real closeness between the two regional powers.

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