Which exchange rate is important for the banking group? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, capital market expert Fardin Agha Bozorgi discussed with Tejarat News the situation of the stock market banking group, which you can read in the second part of this report. According to this capital market expert, the most important cause of this contradiction is the comparison of the free market dollar with stock market indices.

Rial shares have been forgotten?

Has the stock market become indifferent to rial groups? In this regard, Agha Bozouri says: The important thing that comes up in this regard is that many analysts examine the free market dollar rate for analysis. First, there is no good source to get the main rate, and secondly, there is a lot of difference between the effect of fluctuations in the Nima dollar and the currency exchange market with the fluctuation of the dollar in the open market. He emphasizes that the most effective rate that affects the income generation and profitability of listed companies is the exchange rate in the exchange market and Nima!

This capital market analyst further explains: the profitability of the companies that show themselves in the equal weight index depends on the exchange rate and is not related to the free market. Therefore, if this rate is compared with stock market indices, it will face big errors. For example, this contradiction appeared in the first five months of 1402.

Agha Bozorgi adds: The equal weight index increased by 49% until May this year, and the free exchange rate decreased by 10% during this period. But after that, the return of the equal weight index reached the zero point and returned to its place. This was if the dollar did not experience a sharp decline during this period. Therefore, if it is concluded on this basis that the profit of the bank group was ahead or behind the decrease of the exchange rate, an acceptable result will not be obtained.

The importance of the dollar for the stock market

Regarding the exchange rate of banks, the last rate that the central bank announced at the end of March last year was about 25 thousand tomans, which is far away from the three free rates, Havala and Nima. Is this figure reasonable for banks’ currency exchange? What rate has the most suitable price for exchange?

In this regard, Agha Bozouri says: Despite the fact that many officials admit that the dollar rate in the free market is not reliable, but in my opinion, this is completely the opposite. Because even this year, before the feed rate was formulated, the basis for calculating the gas feed rate of industries, petrochemical and refining companies was based on the free exchange rate. But the officials consider this rate as an illusion and do not consider it correct. The question that arises is that if the free market dollar rate is not correct, why was it used for the feed rate of 7000 Tomans?

This capital market analyst says about the challenge of determining the exchange rate: the exchange rate that they have considered for banks and other industries is set as a mandate and many export-oriented companies, especially those that are more dependent on the government, are forced to register the currency. They do it at Nima rate. But everything that the companies determine as raw materials and feed is calculated at the free rate.

He adds: On the other hand, this issue is considered as a potential for banks and industries. Because when the government withdraws its hands from this issue, banks that have resources and foreign currency assets will enjoy great potential.

Aghabouzuri states: Unfortunately, if you look at the fluctuation of currency prices from 2077 to 1401, it is clear that the most lagging rate compared to stock market indices, inflation, dollar and housing is related to government currency. Therefore, the exchange rate is one of the legitimate and acceptable problems from the point of view of the stakeholders of the capital market, which has blocked the increase in the profitability of companies.

Who are the government’s decisions in favor of?

This capital market analyst said: naturally, the government, as the largest consumer of currency, makes the best decision for its own benefit, so every company or industry that has currency reserves must provide it to the government at the cheapest price!

Agha Bozurgi added: But the basic question and ambiguity that arises for me is whether the policy of strengthening the national currency at the macro level has led our economic growth to improvement or weakened it? In order to strengthen the national currency, the policy of controlling the exchange rate has been considered as merely suppressing production and exports and encouraging imports. Therefore, the result of our lack of economic growth in the last 10 years is one of the reasons that caused this problem.