Which product will be offered in the stock market?

According to Tejarat News, the stock market ended last week with an increase in the total index level. This increase occurred while during the seven weeks before that the main index Exchange He was going through declining days.

Quoted from the world of economyThe price review during the last week shows that an important part of the increase in demand, especially the arrival of real money in the first days of this week, was related to symbols such as banking and automobiles, which are known as the symbols of the deal. At the same time, the dollar symbols of the stock market have also paved the way for buyers by reducing the presence of sellers.

This caused the stock market to open to sellers on the weekend, when the JCPOA negotiations were in silent phase to review the European side’s proposal to Iran, which the United States has also agreed to. Now we have to wait and see what the positive outlook of the stock market towards the JCPOA will have in the coming weeks.

Last week, Tehran Stock Exchange witnessed a balanced situation with positive but mild conditions with two less working days. During this week, the overall index managed to end the series of consecutive weekly drops in the summer with an increase of 0.7%. In the meantime, some so-called JCPOA groups, such as the Bank and Khodro groups, were in better conditions overall, and the overall market also grew, especially on Saturday, along with receiving news about the progress of the nuclear negotiations in Vienna.

The cautious reaction to the developments related to the Vienna negotiations is taking place while earlier, there was the opinion among most of the market participants that reaching an agreement is not a favorable event due to the possibility of strengthening the value of the Rial and controlling the increasing inflation, because the prospect of the growth of companies’ income and the increase of the exchange rate however, with the passage of more than 15 months since the beginning of the negotiation process and the continuation of the inflationary environment and the simultaneous stagnation of the stock market, this view has been weakened to a great extent; Especially, due to the pressures caused by the budget deficit, the government’s policies are directed towards creating cost pressure on companies and price interventions with the aim of curbing inflation. From this point of view, the possible agreement and removal of oil sales sanctions can become the basis for the stock market boom by reducing the risk of investment.

The importance of car supply in the stock market

If nothing unexpected happens, you can unlock the car’s supply Commodity Exchange He was hopeful with the sale of Bahman Group products on Wednesday of this week. This important event, after four years of mandated pricing and creating a significant gap between the factory price and the market of most consumer cars, is the first step towards the direct and unrestricted sale of cars by companies.

At the same time, despite the heavy accumulated losses of the large companies of this group, the stock situation of this industry was improving last week and the relevant index increased by 4% on a weekly basis.

The importance of the mentioned event for the two Iran Khodro and Saipa companies is important because, first of all, the difference between the market price and the approved rate for the sale of high-volume products has sometimes reached 100%, and it has created a very important difference in the unprofitability of these companies from the current situation. The second point is that the net loss margin of Iran Khodro, for example, was less than 5% in spring.

Thus, if it is possible to sell Iran Khodro’s ambitious products at a price in the middle of the mandated price and the market price, this company will become one of the most profitable companies in the country’s capital market due to its leverage (high sales revenue)! There is a similar situation with Saipa, and of course, this company seeks to offer products on the stock exchange through the acceptance of Shahin cars, so it seems that the biggest development for this group will be the fulfillment of the promise of offering all products on the stock exchange; A promise that, if fulfilled, will not only lead to the adjustment of false car prices in the free market, like the experience of Bahman Group’s products, but with the formation of a winning game between consumers, shareholders and car manufacturers, it will ultimately lead to the exit of companies in this industry from the current miserable situation and the possibility It facilitates the growth of production and investment by attracting new resources.

The passage of cement from the period of inflammation?

For the second week in a row, cement trading in the Iran Stock Exchange witnessed the volume of supply surpassing demand by a significant amount of half a million tons. The trading price of each ton of this product was unchanged at less than 700,000 tomans for the fifth consecutive week. This is despite the fact that, according to experts, after the rise in demand at the end of June and recording the weighted average rate of 800,000 tomans for the price of each ton of cement in the stock market, monitoring and management have been applied on the demand side so that transaction prices do not exceed a certain limit.

In July, this issue caused a considerable gap between the free market and stock market prices, but the current price analysis shows that the difference between these two rates has returned to the normal range after taking into account the side costs (including tax, distribution, retail profit, etc.); In other words, it can be said that the previous inflammation, which was caused by the fear of power outages and reduced production of companies, has been resolved and the current exchange rates are not significantly different from the free price.

Part of the solution to the mentioned inflammation is related to the different situation of power supply of factories in the current year, which despite being in the peak of the hot season, in the last month has been up to 25% higher than the same period of the previous year. Full of constraints on the demand side, the current stability of the cement market will continue.

Of course, it is important that even assuming the current price remains stable until the end of the season, the average sales rate of cement companies will be about 25% higher than in the spring season; A situation that keeps the hopes alive for publishing favorable performance reports from this industry in the summer season.

The yellow face of the housing market in China

Although in the past year, the news of the Chinese construction giant Evergrande’s default in paying its debts occupied the headlines of the world’s economic media for a while, but a closer look at the amount of non-fulfillment of obligations in China’s housing sector indicates that the tip of the iceberg in the sector’s crisis is revealed. has real estate in this country.

According to available statistics, from the beginning of 2021 until now, 30 construction companies in China have defaulted on about one trillion dollars of their debt or interest payment due date, less than a third of which belongs to the construction giant Evergrande.

In addition, for the first time in the past 7 years, according to official statistics, the growth rate of housing prices has entered the negative range on an annual scale, while independent and non-governmental sources have reported a decrease of more than 10% in the average transaction rate of housing in Chinese cities.

At the same time, part of the pre-buyers of housing in China have also stopped their payments due to the instability of the market and non-fulfillment of the obligations of the builders. According to the estimate of Deutsche Bank, about 296 billion dollars of payment obligations of buyers are subject to default.

In addition to all this, estimates of China’s housing sales indicate a 25% contraction this year compared to the previous year, which is one of the most serious declines in the industry in the four decades of prosperity of the world’s second largest economy. The importance of the issue increases when considering the contribution of more than 20% of construction activities in China’s annual national production statistics. Some of the most experienced economic experts believe that this important part of China’s economy has entered a period of chronic stagnation from which it is not possible to exit in the short term.

Considering the importance of China’s real estate sector on the demand of an important group of raw materials (including iron ore, steel, copper, etc.), the drop in this field can have serious and lasting medium-term consequences for the commodity market, especially in the field related to construction activities.