Will housing prices become cheaper in the future if the JCPOA is revived?

According to Tejarat News, forecast housing market In the coming months and the systematic behavior of the housing market from 1380 to today, it has shown five periods of prosperity and recession, and this market has experienced two very high and consecutive growths for the first time in the late nineties. This high growth can provide the means to enter a long recession cycle in case of disappointment with the JCPOA.

Factors affecting housing prices

By taking a quick look at the housing pattern in the last twenty years, it can be concluded that factors such as inflation, land price, expected inflation, dollar price, price of construction materials, monetary expansion policy and increase in oil revenues are influential in creating the current conditions of the housing market. have been.

But it should be pointed out that in the 80s monetary expansion policies on the one hand and the increase in oil revenues on the other hand caused an increase in liquidity, which were very effective in the boom of the housing market, but in the 90s due to the existence of unbridled inflation, Continuous and uncontrollable, as well as the extreme fluctuation of the exchange rate (so that the dollar rate increased significantly several times), housing prices became strangely more expensive, to the extent that according to experts, this increase was unpredictable, and getting rid of these conditions requires the passage of time. relatively long and the implementation of appropriate economic and financial policies in parallel markets.

Increasing price expectations

It should be noted that if in the current situation the behavior of the housing market is the same as two decades ago and the exchange rate reaches relative stability, then the high cost of construction materials or housing production cannot be a motivation for the high price of housing, but on the contrary, in such a situation, profit margin builders They lower themselves and housing prices will not be in such turmoil. However, in the current situation, i.e. the increase in price expectations and the beginning of a new peak of inflation, the increase in housing prices is not far from expected, and the only promising thing is that housing prices do not grow as much as inflation.

We do not have a history of housing price reduction

But if the JCPOA is revived, there is a possibility of price reduction in the currency and gold market. Will the housing market face a price reduction? A housing expert said in a conversation with Tejarat News: Housing prices in our country are affected by many factors due to the capital perspective, among which international and political issues are one of those factors.

Referring to the above article, Mohsen Fleki said: When the risk of foreign trade increases for businessmen and investors turn to the domestic market, investing in real estate is definitely one of the most popular and profitable markets, because with the arrival of cash quickly It grows and goes out of the natural state of supply and demand.

In the end, this real estate expert pointed out: Another influencing factor in housing prices is the existence of wrong directives and instructions of the housing trustees in the country, which, due to the wrong view of this market and the lack of a correct statistical population, double the effects of sanctions. Regarding the reduction of housing prices, it should be seen what the government’s plan is for housing, not in slogans but in practice.

This expert further emphasized that although the revival of the JCPOA can reduce the price of the dollar and gold, it does not affect the price of housing and we have not had a history of cheap housing in the country.