Will the Middle East gasoline export leader be removed from the market?
On October 5, ILNA news agency interviewed Nusratullah Seifi, advisor to the Energy Commission of the Iran Chamber, and wrote: Export as an economic activity has profound effects in various dimensions and as the most common and fastest way to enter international markets, especially in developing countries; It is very important. For this reason, exporting countries, especially in the field of energy, always move towards the development of market orientation in order to improve their performance by identifying markets and adopting market-oriented strategies, one of the requirements of which is continuous presence and continuous and planned supply. Not only will we drive customers one by one, but we will be the losers in this competitive and breathtaking arena.
Year 99 Iran, importer of gasoline, with the entry of all phases of the Persian Gulf Star refinery and, of course, the reduction of domestic consumption due to the spread of the corona; Seriously entered the export phase, so that according to customs statistics, the country’s gasoline exports reached over 7.8 million tons in the same year, which is equivalent to 180,000 barrels per day, ie in terms of growth of about 620% and growth in value. It grew by about 360 percent compared to 1998 and became the largest exporter of fuel in the Middle East, but this lead did not last long, as domestic gas consumption and the change of power plants’ fuel from gas to liquid in the winter caused exports to stop again. With the approach of the cold season, exports have been declining and from 1174352 tons of gasoline exports in May to zero in November, of course, in the following months this product was exported again, but never returned to the previous figure, in the case of diesel exports The same thing happened and from 138,500 tons in April, we reached 500 tons in the last month of winter, so that today we can see a halt in exports. Now the question is whether with this procedure the presence of sinusoidal and oscillating fuel in the export ring; Will the market continue to wait for us?
As the experience of exports in other sectors shows, customers do not like the crooked behavior in the supply of the product and are definitely looking for a reliable supplier, for example in the field of electricity, looking for fluctuations in the supply sector due to increased domestic consumption. We see that a country like Iraq is entering into negotiations with Turkey and Saudi Arabia for its energy supply, and may even leave Iran behind. As a result, Iran will be removed from the market and these products will remain afloat.
Therefore, today and in the current situation, it demands that while promoting export goals according to a coherent plan and not based on emotional decisions and with short-term results; First, we need tanks to store and store a certain amount of surplus needed for exports so that customers can count on a regular supply, and we also avoid making commitments beyond the standard and concluding fixed-price FIX contracts in heavy volumes; Due to the increase in oil and commodity prices, we should not be aware of the losses and losses to Beit Al-Mal, so that we can remain in the market.
The market for gasoline, diesel and fuel oil is different from crude oil, although it is mainly sold as a spot. Of course, as much as the exporter needs the cargo to form the company and the market, the consumer is looking for a reliable and continuous supply, even if we are a spot seller, otherwise planning is not possible and can not be given to this periodic seller. The program relied.
In addition to the need to solve problems related to the lack of continuous supply, the country’s production and consumption balance must be positive to a certain extent in order to have reliable exports. It is due to repairs or some problems, but it is important to optimize the domestic consumption sector, which changes in different seasons, for example, due to increased travel in summer or some occasions, gasoline consumption increases. In these cases, it is natural that the country’s infrastructure needs It has storage tanks.
The advisor of the Energy Commission of the Iran Chamber emphasized: “In any case, if we want to have a coherent and continuous export, the level of production and consumption in the country must be positive for a long time and its amount must be significant.” Increasing demand due to the existing refinery capacity is the only way to rebuild the refinery, which in addition to raising the country’s costs, also encourages consumerism, because the well will not end.
Referring to the export markets of the product, he said: “We are currently transiting more to the surrounding countries due to the discussion of sanctions, and the export of gasoline is more of a spot, which is usually our customers in neighboring countries such as Afghanistan, UAE, Pakistan and Iraq.”
Another possibility is for us to export swaps. We periodically swaps the products of Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan and the Iraqi Kurdistan region. It can upset the market. Therefore, one of the positive measures for the continuous presence in the export market of the product is to have stable rules for swaps and transit and to have a well-written program with a certain amount of goods to supply so that the customer can trust us and have a permanent market for himself. We have created.
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