Will the stock/capital market weekly forecast remain balanced?
According to Tejarat News, the total index of the stock market dropped by 0.7 percent last week and reached the level of 1,502,000 units.
Ebrahim Samavi, the portfolio manager of Navid Portfolio Company, said in a conversation with Tejarat News: “The shadow of uncertainty in the field of foreign policies has been casting a shadow over the stock market for a long time.”
He added: Financial markets sometimes have a trend or are so-called trendless. These days, the capital market is like this, and the index is fluctuating between the numbers of 1,500,000 and 600,000 units.
Samavi stated: Due to the noticeable increase in inflation in the spring season, the growth of the free dollar rate reached the range of 32 thousand tomans, the increase in the average monthly housing price in Tehran reached nearly 40 million tomans in June. This indicates an increase in inflationary expectations, therefore, due to the anti-inflationary feature of the capital market, there is no concern about its collapse or severe stagnation in the medium term.
He explained: On the other hand, considering that the P/E ttm of the market is within the range of the historical average of 7, there has been no bubble in the market. The prospective P/E is estimated in the range of 5-6 as an average, which is valuable from the perspective of fundamental market analysis. In the short term, the market moves more and more affected by the news, and last week, with the news of the indirect resumption of JCPOA negotiations in Qatar, the so-called JCPOA industries (automotive, transportation, and banking) increased in price.
The impact of JCPOA on the stock market
Navid, the portfolio manager of Sabdgardan Company, said: Last weekend, Enrique Mora, the representative of the European Union, tweeted that indirect negotiations between Iran and the United States were without progress, so that the outcome of the JCPOA was more uncertain. Therefore, industries are expected to return their growth to the market and the market will start its early week with a red color. On the other hand, in the medium term, if the task of the JCPOA is determined, and if there is an agreement, JCPOA industries, then Riyal industries, and finally dollar industries will grow due to the reduction in export costs.
According to the capital market activist, if the agreement of the JCPOA does not happen and the government intends to. By using the control of producer prices, the current unbridled inflation will depend on Rial industries such as pharmaceutical, food, agriculture, rubber and animal husbandry with decreasing profits or even increasing losses.
He added: In this scenario, due to the growth in the sales rate of dollar industries such as basic metals, mining of metal ores, petrochemicals, they will especially have growth potential.
Samavi stated: The refining industry will maintain its crack esper due to the continuation of the crisis in Ukraine and if the world does not go towards an inflationary stagnation caused by the severe contractionary policies of the Federal Reserve, which shows its value in the current limits. In general, in the coming week, it is expected that the international market will be in a balanced condition without the previous trend if there is no pulse transmission.