Will the stock market / capital market index forecast weekly rise?
According to Tejarat News, the total index of the stock exchange stood at 1,520,000 units on Wednesday last week. At the end of this week, the index grew by 2.8 percent to reach 1,564,000 units.
The total homogeneous index experienced a level of 428,931 units with a growth of 1.76 percent. The OTC index also grew by 1.92 percent to 21,349 units.
“The market has had relatively good days this week,” a capital market expert told TradeNews. The overall index, which grew by nearly three percent. The homogeneous index, which reflects the situation of small and medium-sized companies in the market, also ended its work with a growth of 1.5 percent. For the past three consecutive weeks, however, we have seen negative market returns.
What factors affect the stock market?
Sara Fallah explained about the factors affecting the stock market index: “These days, there are fundamental factors in the market that make some market conditions special.” The most important point is the divergence between the Nima currency and the free dollar. As the dollar rose and inflation rose, the cost of many commodities rose. Companies, on the other hand, have to sell their products at half the dollar. While other markets grew in parallel, the capital market is now one of the most stagnant.
He explained: “In the past, the double exchange rate, the 4200 currency and the free currency, caused many problems for companies and for society as a whole.” Unfortunately, the same scenario is being repeated with the free dollar and the half dollar. If this trend continues and the difference between the rates of the two currencies, which is currently around 30%, widens, we should expect the same thing to happen. The double exchange rate of the dollar always causes rent and corruption, and certain people with special rents make the most of this arbitrage position.
He emphasized: The next issue is the issue of Barjam. Last week, the dollar fell as Iran presented a new package to the United States. Therefore, the most important economic challenge of the country is still the issue of Barjam. Whatever the outcome, eventually either the half dollar will move to the free dollar or the free dollar will fall, and this difference will be reduced by 30%.
The impact of the dollar exchange rate on the stock market
Regarding the impact of the dollar exchange rate on the stock market, Falah believes that the dollar exchange rate is an important factor influencing the capital market in the medium term. As the past has shown us, the dollar and the stock market are interdependent in the medium term.
The stock market expert continued: “Another effective criterion in the short term is holding corporate meetings.” Companies with better dividends are considered. Especially this year, many companies are paying dividends earlier than in previous years.
He added: “Another component that is still important for the market is the status of refining reporting and the determination of block assignments in the two symbols of car and loss.” These two factors have had a very short-term impact on the stock market since the beginning of this year. In the case of the refining group, crack spread (the difference between the price of a barrel of oil and its products) reached its highest historical level. The upward trend of crack spreads, which started last spring, continues. On the other hand, the outlook for world oil prices is still positive, and large international companies have forecast oil prices above $ 100 by the end of 2022, all of which indicate the favorable situation of the refining group.
Fallah also reminded about the supply of car blocks: Regarding the status of the car block transaction and the loss, it is also heard that pricing has been done and the transfer will be done soon. Therefore, any of these events, ie the presentation of refinery reports or the transfer of vehicle blocks and losses, is the most important criterion affecting the market.
Technical analysis of the total index
This capital market expert also emphasized on the overall index: although last week, with the increase of RSI above the level of 50, we witnessed the superiority of buyers’ power over sellers; But the resistance in front of the index, ie the range of 1608 units of major resistance is very important and it is very difficult to cross it. The MFI is in the equilibrium area and McDee has neither issued a buy signal nor a sell signal. The first static support is in the range of 1450,000 units (Fibonacci 38 range), but until this support is reached, the overall index is faced with a simple Moving Origin dynamic support with a periodicity of 35, which has had effective reactions in the past. Lose support to the range of 1450,000 units of correction.
Homogeneous index analysis
Flage went on to examine the homogeneity index: The homogeneity index reacted positively to two levels of Fibonacci level 23 static support and 35-day Moving Origin dynamic support. If this area loses support until the next support, the range of 396 thousand units will be corrected. Also, the next resistance in front of it is in the range of 450,000 units. The volume situation has decreased and the RSI is in the range of 50, which shows the relative balance between the strength of buyers and sellers.
The status of the homogeneous index as a whole
As we can see in the graph of the ratio of the homogeneous index to the total, unlike the last two months, the total index is now in a better position than the homogeneous. If this situation continues, we will see a change in the market paradigm towards large and fundamental shares. Therefore, observing this chart is important for market participants. Each time this chart goes up, it means that the situation of the weighted index is better than the total, and vice versa.
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