Will the stock market weekly forecast / sales queues end?

According to Tejarat News, the total index of the stock market last week closed at 1,471,000 units and reached 1,443,000 units this week. These figures indicate a 1.90% drop in the total stock market index.

Sara Fallah, a capital market analyst, said in a conversation with TejaratNews: “We started August with the color of disappointment in the stock market. There is a saying of greatness that says “the right speech at the right time is worth” is the story of these days and good reports of 3 months. The stock exchange was expecting 3-month reports since the beginning of June. But no single factor can affect the market. Different items can neutralize the effects. After August 2019 and after 24 months have passed since those days, Hanur plays the main role of parameters in the capital market. Whenever the government and macroeconomic decisions were in line with the market, a new life was injected into the activists. Whenever the government opposed the market, not by decree, but even by talking, the worst possible form of despair was formed in the market.

He continued: The main problem was that the rumor of an increase in the bank interest rate coincided with the 3-month reports and the 12-month refinement report. The report that the market had been waiting for for months and the announced numbers were of interest. But at the time of publication, the talk of interest rate increase did not allow this report to have its real effect on the stock market.

This stock market analyst explained: the value of the transactions is low and hardly increases to two thousand billion tomans (hemat) per day. This transaction value is not significant at all. A more interesting point is related to “Pomegranate analysis and table reading of the ratio of real money withdrawal to the value of small stock transactions”. Unfortunately, these days we are experiencing the largest amount of this ratio, which means the increase in the power of money withdrawal from the stock market.

The key to solving problems is in the hands of the government

Fallah explained: The main key to solving these problems is in the hands of the government. Supporting the capital market means supporting production. It means the correct use of stray liquidity, otherwise, the interest rate will increase, which is a solution that has been tried in our country for years and we are aware of its results.

He continued: In the next phase of the government, the stock exchange organization, as a trading supervisor, can at least put pressure on the market operators. The main task of the market manager is to support the market during the red days of the market. Therefore, they should not appear in the role of buyers these days, and this is a reasonable expectation. Of course, unfortunately, it was seen that not only were they not buyers, but they themselves fueled the supply fire by selling more. Dealing with these market makers is the reasonable expectation of every shareholder.

Prediction of next week’s stock market transactions

This capital market analyst said in forecasting next week’s transactions: With the central bank’s at least verbal withdrawal from interest rate hikes and the central bank’s emphasis on reducing the difference between the semi-free and open dollars, the market got a new lease of life.

Fallah added: The market ended the last working day of the week with a growth of 0.3%. We expect that the intensity of sales will decrease a little next week and in general, we will witness a more balanced week.

A technical look at the total and equal weight index

He continued: The dominant trend in the total index is the downward trend. We can see the selling pressure of the sellers on the buyers from the RASI indicator, and we also see the low volume of transactions in the MFI. But the price is currently in the support range of 38% Fibonacci retracement, which coincides with the horizontal support level. If we draw a short-term channel, we can see that the prices are at the bottom of this channel. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to expect a positive reaction in this expectation range.

Fallah explained: If we look at the long-term trend over the past year and a half, we will notice that the 20 level of RASI was very important for the chart. Every time ARASI reaches level 20, it reacts effectively. Currently, ARAI is at the level of 20, which is an emphasis on the correction, albeit short, and against the direction of the prevailing trend.

He said: We are witnessing a similar trend in the equal weight index. The dominant trend is downward and currently the price has hit the horizontal support and the bottom of the short-term downward channel. The distance between the 35-day moving average and the price has increased, so we expect a slight correction in this area. The level of 20 ARAI is also important in this chart like the total level index. Every time it reaches the level of 20, the price has shown a positive reaction, which is another confirmation that the expectation of a minor correction in the short term is not out of mind.

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