Analyzing the currency price chart in recent years / in which channel is the dollar rate stabilized?

Saeed Azimi said in an interview with the economic reporter of Fars News Agency: Basically, the price of the dollar does not have the ability to break successive ceilings, and apart from the fact that the central bank and policy makers are concerned about controlling the price of the dollar and continuously follow it, especially the dollar, It does not have the strength to break successive ceilings on its own.

He continued: “Perhaps in many countries, the exchange rate has increased several tens of times in a short period of time and has broken many ceilings, but historically in our country, the dollar has shown serious reactions to breaking price ceilings after temporary jumps and easily It will not pass.

This foreign exchange expert added: Examining the behavior of the dollar price in the past shows that the dollar price usually reacts strongly to new numbers, especially the 10 thousand channels, and this is clearly evident in the last two months when dealing with the 50 thousand tomans channel. The dollar price in the unofficial market has been above the 50 thousand tomans channel for at least 40 days in the last two months and has even seen prices of 59 thousand tomans, but finally it has entered the 40 thousand tomans channel.

Azimi stated: The analysis of the price behavior shows that in 1997, when the price of the dollar reached the price range of 10,000 tomans for the first time, and although it reached the range of 12,000 tomans with excitement, it had a slight impact, but it immediately experienced a 35% drop. ; Also, when the price of the dollar approached 20,000 Tomans in September and October of the same year 1997, immediately after that it experienced a 48% correction in the price and remained at the limit of 10,000 Tomans until February of the same year, and from February to March 1997, It experienced a slight growth.

He added: In the fall of 1999 and during the inflationary crisis of that year, when the price of the dollar reached 30 thousand tomans, severe corrections were repeated during the first entry into this channel, and the price of the dollar until December 1999 due to the optimism created by Biden’s victory even It reached 20 thousand tomans and finally ended the year with 23 thousand tomans.

This currency expert stated: In short, if we consider 3 channels of 10, 20, and 30 thousand tomans for the price of the dollar, the price reaction will be such that when entering the channel of 10,000 tomans, the price of the dollar will drop from 11,970 to 9,100 or In other words, it has experienced a 24% drop in price, when approaching the channel of 20,000 Tomans, it decreased from 18,950 Tomans to 9,850 Tomans, which shows a 48% drop, on the other hand, when entering the channel of 30,000 Tomans, from 32,490 Tomans 21,100 Tomans has dropped, which is equivalent to 35%.

Azimi added: “Nevertheless, in 1401, the situation changed and after three months of tension, the dollar price ceiling of 40 thousand tomans was broken, and now the question is, in the current situation, a ceiling of 40 thousand tomans was broken in 1401.” Will we see breaking the ceiling of 50 thousand tomans again in a very short distance? In this regard, it can be claimed that the order of the dollar chart will be maintained during recent years and the dollar will remain in the channel of 40 thousand tomans.

He stated: The monitoring and analysis of the foreign exchange market in recent days shows that despite the temporary breaking of the ceiling of 50 thousand tomans, in terms of the fundamental variables as well as market sentiment, there is no potential to stabilize the exchange rate above this range, and we should wait for the stabilization of the dollar rate in the process. Our reduction in the channel should be 40 thousand tomans and below.

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