Are the risks threatening the stock market / black financing from the capital market continuing?

According to Tejarat News, the stock market had taken a big step in the upward direction upon entering the new year. During this period, the total index of the stock market even managed to conquer the historical peak (year 1999) and reach the height of two million and 548 thousand units by the 17th of May.

However, the market could not maintain its upward trend and on the same date it was in a continuous downward trend that continued until just a few days ago. Of course, the growth of the market in recent days has not been identified as a trend, and considering the volume and value of low transactions and the continuation of real money withdrawal, it is considered very weak and fragile.

Now the question is whether the stock market is going to follow the same neutral path? What are the risks facing the market and why does the market have no tangible movement?

Government risk creation in the stock market

Alireza Farshid, a capital market expert, believes that the risks associated with the capital market are currently widening. He considers the most important risk facing the market to be the decisions made by the government in the economy, the uncertainty of energy and feed rates after about a quarter of the year, the uncertainty in the pricing rates of feed and products in various industries, as well as the prospect of an international agreement or non-agreement.

Referring to the change in feed price from 28,500 tomans to 38,800 tomans, he said: If we analyze optimistically, the government is facing the problem of lack of decision making and coordination in economic pillars. But there is also a point of view that similar to the news of the release of Korean dollars and the issue of selling cars on the commodity exchange, this issue has become a lever for creating volatility and black financing from the market, which I hope will be violated with clear and more scientific decisions of the government.

Pioneer industries of the stock market

Regarding the leading groups in the stock market, he explained to Bors News: Considering the possibility of a recession in global markets and the monetary decisions of central banks to reduce the damage of economic decisions during the Covid era, there is not a very clear outlook for commodities in the short term; Therefore, non-commodity industries such as downstream groups of metal and petro-refining, transportation, auto parts, home appliances, cement, tiles, pharmaceuticals, agricultural food, and sugar can be more attractive opportunities in the investment portfolio of activists due to their lower risk and increase in production and price adjustment and sales facilitation. Have a capital market.

Is the market balanced?

Nima Mirzaei, another capital market expert, also believes that the main reasons for the growth of the stock market index in the first month of spring are the continued movement of the dollar in the open market, entering the channel of 50 thousand tomans and moving up to the range of 60 thousand tomans, which creates the greatest incentive for investors to enter It has changed to the capital market and the purchase of different stocks.

Referring to the existence of a balanced situation in the market transactions in the past few days, he continued: the examination of the stock market index situation in the past two weeks shows that due to the sharp correction of the stock market index, the market reached a balanced trend, which is due to the Gaining shares and resting was the stock market indicator for the next move of the market. This capital market expert believes that the drop in the dollar price in the middle of April had a great impact on the capital market fluctuations.

Prediction of the market trend in the summer season

Mirzaei predicted the trend of the market in the three months of the summer season and added: the market will experience calm trading in the three months of the summer season and it will gradually improve, but it seems that the market is still stagnant and sluggish in the summer season. to be

In an interview with IRNA, this capital market expert stated: Based on the predictions made, there is a possibility that as the end of the summer season approaches, the fever of market transactions will increase and the value of transactions will reach more than 10 hemats. He stated: The increase in the value of transactions and the consequent growth of liquidity entering the stock market will help the upward trend of the stock market index until the end of summer, and we can hope that the index will reach the channel of more than 2 million and 500 thousand units at this point in time. to find

Mirzaei stated: We can hope that reasonable returns will be given to the shareholders in the short term, but this profit will be given to the shareholders who entered the stock market with knowledge or entered this market indirectly through investment funds.

trust burn; Stock market growth accelerator

The stock market is facing many problems these days. On the one hand, the market industries are facing marginalization by the government, and every day a new decision is made for them, and on the other hand, the shareholders have lost their trust in the market and are running away from this investment environment every day, finding the first opportunity to exit. .

Capital market experts believe that despite the appreciation of stocks, the risks that the government imposes on the market have stopped the growth of the market and destroyed the confidence of the shareholders. Accordingly, the stock market needs a strong and confidence-inspiring stimulus to enter a new season of growth.

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