Demographic indicators of Iran in the state of alarm / decrease of 550,000 births during the last 5 years

Life group: Iran has a record rate of declining fertility rates over the past three decades and is in dire need of population growth to get rid of its aging population. The Secretary of the Center for Strategic Studies of the Population, stating that all demographic indicators of Iran are now in a state of alert, said: “We hope that the 13th government will put child support on the agenda and pay special attention to the Islamic Consultative Assembly’s resolution ; Because if we neglect, in the next eight years we will lose the golden window of the population in the country and we will not be able to do anything anymore.

In an interview with ISNA, population researcher Saleh Ghasemi, stating that population is a strategic issue and context that affects all structures of the country (economy and society to politics), said: Population should be considered as a strategic issue in the country. The country’s social and economic indicators are always affected by population changes.

“Iran” holds the record for declining fertility rates over the past three decades

“At present, the country’s population is more than 85 million,” he said. Record the population growth rate of zero percent and then the negative population growth rate (ie population decline).

Referring to the fertility rate index, Ghasemi added: “Today, the country’s fertility rate (average number of children per woman) has reached about 1.6 children per woman.” Today, the lowest fertility rates are recorded in the whole region of West Asia, North Africa and the region known as MENA called Iran. In 1965, the fertility rate was 6.5 children per woman.

The three provinces had the lowest fertility rates

According to the secretary of the Center for Population Studies, the fertility rate in metropolitan areas is less than 1.5 children, so that the fertility rate in Tehran is about 1.4 children per woman. Also, provinces such as Gilan, Mazandaran and Markazi with a fertility rate of about 1.1 children, have the lowest fertility rate in the country.

Decrease of 550,000 births in the last 5 years

Referring to the birth rate in the country, Ghasemi also reminded: while in 1394, 1,570,000 births were registered, this annual birth rate decreased and every year the decreasing trend increased to the point that in 1399 the number of births Reached about one million births; In other words, we lost more than 550,000 births in a five-year period.

The researcher said: It is predicted that the trend of reducing the number of births will continue and due to the departure of women in the 60s from the reproductive age and due to the economic recession in Iran and of course changing attitudes and lifestyle of Iranian families, this trend in the number of births in Families continue.

Set a new record of aging population in Iran over the next three decades

Referring to the rate of aging in the country and stating that according to the international definition, 60 to 75 years old is called young, 75 to 90 years old and more than 90 years old, Ghasemi said: “All countries in the world are moving towards aging.” They are a population, but Iran will enter the aging phase of the population without gaining economic growth and development and without using young and active forces for development and progress, and this will increase the consequences of aging for the country; In the next three decades, we will set a new record in the rate of population aging. While most of the countries that are in the aging stage today have gone through the path of youth to old age and the stage of aging in a period of 130 to 140 years, but Iran will go through the path of youth to old age in a period of 30 years.

“Currently, about 10.5 percent of the country’s population is elderly,” he said. We will be the stage of the explosion of old age and from now on Iran can not be called a young country.

The secretary of the Center for Population Studies emphasized: At present, all these demographic indicators of Iran are in a state of alert.

Consequences of population aging

He continued: “The aging of the population will have very serious consequences for the country, the most important of which will be in the field of economy.” When old age accounts for this size of the population, it means that the labor force is declining, while we will need foreign labor; As the labor force shrinks, so does our GDP, and our dependence on imports increases. With the influx of foreign labor, the outflow of currency from the country will accelerate.

The treatment costs of the elderly are 4 times that of the youth

Ghasemi pointed out: With the aging of the country’s population, the cost of care, health and treatment of the elderly will increase significantly, so that studies show that an elderly person has four times more health and medical expenses than a young person.

Bankruptcy and Social Security funds on the verge of bankruptcy

He continued: “On the other hand, with the increase of old age, pension funds such as social security are exposed to bankruptcy; These institutions are the most indebted institutions today, and it seems that we should anticipate the bankruptcy of the Social Security Organization and the pension funds following the increase in old age. As you get older, your working years and retirement age should increase to 70 years. People have to pay more taxes, pay more insurance, because now all 7 people of working age manage and finance an elderly person by paying insurance and taxes, but for the next three decades, all three people have to pay for an elderly person. And will put a lot of pressure on social classes and support organizations.

The Secretary of the Center for Studies believes that we should use global experiences; According to global experience, we have two strategies: “Apply economic incentives to encourage families to have children and improve lifestyle management.”

In another part of his speech, Ghasemi stated that various negligences and mismanagements have caused the law on family planning and population policies, which was a temporary program, to be implemented in the country for 25 years without observation. Going, economic growth – net and gross production – is declining.

Regarding the population control policy, he explained: The Family Planning Law (approved by the Islamic Consultative Assembly in 1373) was supposed to be a temporary program and would be amended after monitoring the effects.

The Secretary of the Center for Population Studies of Iran, noting that the warnings of experts and sympathizers of the population began in earnest in the 90s, said: The general policies of the population were implemented on May 20, 2014, and after this year the three forces to implement family protection policies Were required.

Ghasemi added: “The twelfth government, in the end, ignored the population policies, did not provide any support for the family and childbearing, and even pursued policies that are contrary to childbearing.” We hope that the 13th government will put the implementation of the Family Protection Law on the agenda and pay special attention to the resolution of the Islamic Consultative Assembly on the population youth plan.

The secretary of the Center for Population Studies of Iran warned that in case of negligence, in the next 8 years, we will lose the golden window of the population in the country and we will not be able to do anything.

Source: ISNA

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