Does the weekly stock / total index forecast grow?
According to Tejarat News, the total stock index fell by 2% in the last week of the spring season. The total index increased from 1,564 on the 25th of Khordad to 1,533,000 on the first day of summer.
“The 1401 spring stock exchange ended with a negative return,” Sarah Fallah, a capital market expert, told Tejarat News. However, market returns during the spring were positive returns, and the market as a whole recorded both positive and large shares of positive returns for their shareholders. This week, as in previous weeks, we saw real money leaving the market.
He continued: “The growth of the dollar and parallel markets and the backwardness of the capital market is one of the reasons for the withdrawal of real money from the stock market.” Because it has a negative psychological effect on market participants, although this week we saw an increase of half a dollar to 26,100 tomans. But the gap between the free dollar and the half is still wide, despite promises by officials that the gap should be reduced.
This capital market expert explained: The value of small stock transactions did not change much compared to last week, but it is still less than the numbers 7 and 8 Hemmat (billion tomans) that we experienced in some days of May. In June, we were about eight thousand tomans worth of real goods leaving the market.
Fallah explained: July is the assembly season. Some of the market liquidity comes out in the form of DPS. Of course, it should be noted that the real exit means the difference in sales. And this money may be available in the form of cash in real estate accounts at brokerages.
Will the stock market be negative?
The capital market expert said in forecasting next week’s transactions: “The most important event is the companies’ 12-month reports as well as the company’s 3-month reports.” No one can deny the impact of the companies’ 12-month report on the stock market as a whole. It seems that the companies’ net profit margin has decreased and in this case the stock market reacts negatively.
The capital market expert continued: “Another influential point next week is the block pricing of two symbols, Khodro and Khasapa.” This week, Minister Samat announced that these figures will be announced next week. Of course, since the beginning of the year, this news has always been the driving force of the market. Any positive news will move the market forward and any negative news will correct the stock market.
“Global commodity prices have a huge impact on the market,” he said, referring to world prices. More than 70% of our market value is made up of companies with global profitability, and rising prices can affect the profitability of companies. In the case of global markets, after the end of the Fed pandemic, the Federal Reserve and the central banks of the world’s major economies began to implement contractionary policies to control inflation. Also, direct liquidity to the purchase of assets.
The Impact of War on World Economies
The capital market expert continued: With the start of the Russian war, the situation became extremely difficult. In the United States, for example, inflation reached 8.6 percent, the highest level in 40 years. That led the Federal Reserve to raise bank interest rates by 0.75 percent last week to 1.5 to 1.75 percent. The Federal Reserve’s Jeremy Powell also said that in the next leak, there may be a further increase in this rate, and this will cause the central banks of other countries to adjust their policies to the United States. As a result, strong global inflationary policies are likely to cause the global economy to stagnate, reducing commodities and increasing demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. Of course, these things happen in the long run.
Fallah explained: “Negotiations will probably resume and the conclusion of the Barjam is the way to save the economy.” Any negative news puts more pressure on the economy and oil prices. With the increase in world oil prices, the need for Iranian oil has increased. Although we are on sanctions paper, it is said that Iran exports more than 1.5 million barrels of oil per day and ready-to-export oil reserves have reached 100 million barrels. Exchange rate control is freer and has more resources
Total index analysis
Regarding the total index, he said: The total index of the stock market entered a negative phase with a moving average cross with a 35-day period. The RSA endometer also shows the superiority of selling power over buying. We also saw a significant drop in the FMA, so it is not far-fetched to expect the index to improve until its first major support, the range of 1450,000 units, which is also the range of 38% Fibonacci. Of course, in the meantime, psychological support and minor has 1500 thousand units, and the first important resistance and major resistance is in the range of 1608 thousand units, and in general, it is predicted for next week that the total index of negative performance will be recorded.
Finally, Fallah explained: In the same weight index, the situation is almost the same as the total index. The RSI and MFI both fell below the 50 level, indicating a downward trend in the weighted index. The price is currently losing its support in the range of 420,000 units, which corresponds to 23% of Fibonacci. Is also to be reduced.