Dollar, Gold and Coin Markets Forecast / A Look at the Financial Markets May 15, 1401
According to Trade News, today the dollar remained in the same channel with a relative increase in price, but gold and coins, unlike yesterday, had a downward trend.
Alerts for digital currencies
Bitcoin It once dropped to $ 26,800 and returned to $ 30,000 again. You might think this is a sign of a market reversal, but many experts believe that the market is still in decline.
Mark Mobius, an experienced investor and one of the founders of mobius capital partners, warned investors about a further decline in the cryptocurrency market. “In the current situation, the fall of bitcoin is very likely,” he said in a new interview with Financial News London.
Mobis believes that in the old days, a buy-in strategy was the price floor, but now it’s not a good idea. He predicts that bitcoin will drop to $ 20,000 in the first place, and if $ 20,000 is lost, it could drop to $ 10,000.
“You might think the $ 20,000 channel buying strategy is appropriate, but it does not work. “You might think bitcoin would return $ 20,000 through the channel, but we might fall to $ 10,000.”
“Do not forget that the US money supply has increased by more than 30 percent in recent years, and that means rising inflation,” Mobies said in an interview. But this time the cryptocurrency market is on the verge of failure and is not a good protector for inflation.
“The cryptocurrency market has become a religion and people think that they can make money with this investment. “They only buy because they believe in cryptocurrencies.”
The return of bitcoin is no longer that simple. Bitcoin has fallen more than 80% seven times in its history, but is now about 60% away from its price ceiling, which is why it is more likely to fall.
Forecast the stock market tomorrow
Exchange Today, it grew by more than 13,000 units and finally stood at the level of 1,578,000 units. Experts say the stock market will make at least 50% profit by the end of the year.
Ahmad Eshtiaghi, a capital market expert, told Tejarat News: The free market dollar has reached the range of 30,000 Tomans, and with this increase in the stock market price, it will experience a balanced trend tomorrow.
“Given the expectations, the stock market is growing on inflation expectations these days,” explains the capital market expert. Because the free market dollar started to increase and the currency of 4200 Tomans was released in the free market.
He continues: The next component is the process of increasing or decreasing the price of the free market dollar. Today, we faced an increase in the price of basic goods, and on this basis, it is expected that the Central Bank will enter the free market dollar price determination and will not allow the price to increase, and eventually the free market dollar price will fall below 30,000 Tomans.
“On the other hand, the discussion of the Borjam negotiations is being pursued, which could affect the dollar market and Exchange To calm down. Inflation expectations also fall after the issue.
The stock market is balanced!
This expert believes that the stock market should be traded in equilibrium points; This means that the market should not be strong positively or negatively, and this process will continue until negotiations are determined.
Referring to the 12-month reports, this capital market expert says: The publication of the companies’ 12-month reports has started on the Kedal website. If the reports are good, the index can reach the range of 1.7 million units.
He continues: No matter how much inflation expectations increase in terms of non-revival of Borjam. If Borjam is revived, groups such as banks and cars will be favored by shareholders.
“Overall, the capital market is doomed to a gradual and slow rise,” says Eshtiaghi. In other words, we will not lose the 1.5 million index, and by July, the index will reach the range of 1.7 million units.
This capital market expert emphasizes: If Borjam is revived, this is real market growth, but if Borjam is not revived, the growth of the stock market will not be real, and the stock market will grow in dollars.
Gold Prediction
Maryam Mohebbi, a financial markets expert, told Tejaratnews: “In the gold market, despite the decline in the global ounce due to the adoption of the Federal Reserve’s contractionary policies, we have seen an upward trend in the domestic gold, coin and molten gold market.”
He explained: “This issue stems from the increase in the price of the dollar in the country.” As long as we see the dollar rising in the domestic market, domestic gold is also on the rise.
“I think the global ounce will rise in the medium term, unlike the other markets, which have declined due to the Federal Reserve’s contractionary policies and lower interest rates, in which case domestic gold will grow more than the dollar,” said Borzoo Haghshenas, another financial markets expert.
Dollar forecast
Maryam Mohebbi, a financial markets expert, said about the recent trend of the dollar: The increase in the price of consumer goods, especially food, the elimination of 4,200 Tomans and the news that there is a possibility of price increase in various sectors will increase inflation expectations.
He continued: “Inflation expectations themselves are one of the factors that can play a key role in shaping inflation, so the issues mentioned earlier make people seek to turn their assets into safer assets.” The fact that the dollar has risen in recent days stems from factors that have raised people’s inflation expectations in society.
Mohebbi stated: It is expected that if the government does not take corrective measures, the price of the dollar will continue to increase because the demand to buy the dollar as a safe commodity against the rial will be on the agenda of the whole increase.
Regarding the impact of the global market, the expert said: “In the world markets, due to the strict contractionary policies of the Federal Reserve, we are witnessing an increase in the value of the dollar in the international community, and this increase will spread to Iran.”
He stated: Therefore, two important issues have been influential in increasing the price of the dollar; Rising inflation expectations in society and rising dollar prices globally.
Mohebbi predicted: This trend is expected to continue next week and we will see a very slow slope of the dollar price increase. Unless the government offers final and fundamental solutions to control the rate. The only way to stop the dollar from rising right now is for the government to take corrective action.
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