Drought in the United States and the threat of disruption of the global food supply chain

Some farmers in southwest Kansas, the largest U.S. wheat producer, have not had enough rain or snow since October, Reuters reported on Tuesday. Winter wheat is planted in the fall and remains dormant in the winter and turns green in the spring. Adequate soil temperature is very important for crops at this stage.

According to the National Center for Drought Reduction, more than half of the Kansas area has been in severe drought since March 8, the driest since 2018.

Severe drought also affected three-quarters of Oklahoma and more than two-thirds of Texas, both of which are major producers of wheat.

American red winter wheat accounts for about half of the country’s total wheat production and is milled mainly for bread flour. The decline could boost food inflation, which the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) said was the highest in February. The FAO food price index averaged 140.7 points last month, up 20.7 percent from a year earlier and surpassing the 2011 record.

Wheat futures reached a 14-year high early last week as the Russia-Ukraine conflict ousted the world’s two largest wheat exporters and forced importers to look for alternative sources.

Meanwhile, China’s winter wheat, the world’s largest grain producer, is expected to be one of the worst crops in the world after heavy rains delayed planting.

American winter red wheat is harvested in June and July. Farmers typically sell about half of their produce before harvest, but some Kansas farmers are cautious and may not be able to fully capitalize on future price increases because of concerns that they may not be able to make such contracts.

Drought has hit US wheat crops for the second year in a row. The drought also damaged spring wheat during the 2021 harvest season, which is typically sown from March to May.

The Ukraine-Russia conflict has overshadowed the agricultural and food industries, but even countries such as the United States and Argentina will not be able to easily make up for shortages of sunflower, corn and barley due to drought.

The Spanish newspaper The Economist recently reported that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has hampered the country’s agriculture and food industry. With rising prices for sunflower, wheat, corn and barley and shortages of raw materials, the focus is now on countries such as the United States, Argentina or Brazil, which, in addition to China, are major producers of agricultural products.