Forecast of the stock market today, October 1, 1400 / How do experts view the market?

According to Tejarat News, the stock market was accompanied by the growth of the index in most days last week. Although the growth of the index was small, the color green was seen on the index most days.

Last week, despite the positive trend of the overall index, the situation of the stock exchange groups was not acceptable and most of the groups were in red. In recent days, only the petrochemical group was positive and the rest of the market was in imbalance.

For next week, capital market experts predict that the market trend will depend on the government’s anti-inflation policies. This factor seems to be more influential now than other factors such as the dollar exchange rate.

Capital market expert Elias Kurdi’s message about the coming week is that the home appliance group is one of the leading symbols of the stock market and the overall index trend is positive.

Mohammad Khabarizadeh, another market expert, told Tejaratnews about the forecast for next week’s capital market: “Next week, the market trend is neutral and balanced, and single shares of each group can grow.”

The world of economics wrote:

Stock market trading ended in the first week of October with a growth of 3.6% of the total index. After two declining weeks, the buying side of the market finally became somewhat active and the general stock price, led by petrochemicals, began to grow. This time, too, the nuclear negotiator seems to have played the most important role in guiding the deal. The lack of a quick return to the negotiating table and some comments from both sides seem to have frustrated the people of the Glass Hall with the formation of an agreement, at least in the short term.

Demand growth over the past week has been due to the same factor; Where the same expectations in the foreign exchange market raised the dollar rate above 28,000 tomans. Accordingly, the major shareholders and experts participating in the “World Economy” survey have continued to assess the general trend of prices during the current week as upward. However, the fragmentation in predicting the stock market path is still noticeable.

What do the experts say?

Ascending: 50% of the experts present in the “World Economy” survey have assessed the trend of the stock index as ascending this week. The recent stock price correction, which in some symbols was more than 10%, has paved the way for stimulating demand. In particular, the dollar exchange rate has reached a significant level, contrary to expectations. The re-growth of commodity prices in world markets and the increase in oil prices will be effective in raising stock prices by affecting the relevant symbols in the stock market (commodity-oriented and refining). Meanwhile, increasing the likelihood of policymakers moving towards eliminating the $ 4,200 rate and liberalizing prices will also lead to increased demand in some groups. Another influential issue in attracting shareholders is the monthly and medium-term (6-month) reports of companies that have been evaluated by experts as desirable. Also, in terms of technical analysis and resistance charts, the re-crossing of the index through the channel of 1.4 million units will be effective in improving stock demand.

Volatility: 45% of experts in the survey believe that the stock index will be volatile this week. Demand will remain cautious, despite supportive factors such as exchange rates, inflation and price levels in global markets, the experts said; Because any news about the return or non-return of Iran to the negotiating table and the results will significantly affect the stock market conditions. At the same time, the return time will be important from the perspective of shareholders. In this situation, a kind of caution and movement of the cane will be observed by traders. The reason for this is to be found in the fears and anxieties of shareholders, especially after the bitter experience of last year. In general, from the point of view of these analysts, the ambiguities and uncertainty of the future economic and political situation of the country will create a kind of skepticism and inactivity in the market, which will result in a decrease in the level of activity in the stock market. These factors ultimately dominate the low volatility trend in stock trading.

Downward: 50% of experts participating in this survey, however, have predicted a downward trend in the main indicator of the stock market. These people believe that the stock market conditions have become such that after every growth, prices are expected to correct. Because it seems that in the last more than a year, there has been a severe atmosphere of distrust in the market, and in this atmosphere of distrust, shareholders give more weight to negative factors than to positive ones. Overall, as long as the ambiguities are at this level, the zigzag movement will be the dominant trend in stock trading. Shareholders, on the other hand, overestimate the risk of issuing bonds for the budget deficit and, in response, are likely to be active on the selling side.