Forecasting the future of the capital market / Is the index hitting its previous ceiling?
According to Tejaratnews, this report predicts a number of financial market experts in live Instagram programs. Trade News They were present, you read about the future of the capital market.
Mirzaei: The stock market will have a stable upward trend
Nima Mirzaei, a financial market expert, also predicted a “stable upward trend” in the capital market, adding: “I do not envisage sharp growth or a sharp downward trend for this market.” Some people come up with weird fall scenarios, but in the current situation, they are unlikely to work; Unless the government offers a very large volume of securities. Of course, this is unlikely given the government’s behavior.
He pointed out that the total index should not be used as a basis for stock market analysis, but in any case, given its importance, I must say that the future of the total index depends on the outcome and the return of blocked money. If an agreement is reached in the fall, as a result of which oil sales will increase somewhat and some of the blocked money will return, the index is likely to fall in the short term but grow again. The index is likely to reach the number of 1.6 million to 1.8 million this year.
Mirzaei added: “The capital market is greatly affected by the exchange rate.” This shows that the stock market is still a good place to invest. In the short run, if it is down, there is no better market in the long run than the stock market.
Mohebbi: I am not optimistic about the capital market
Maryam Mohebbi, a financial markets expert, said in this regard: “Financial markets should be examined in terms of efficiency, liquidity and duration of profitability.” Given these indicators, I am not very optimistic about the capital market.
He added: “Although the statistics show the good performance of the stock market in different periods, but the overall index has been increasing in an engineered way.” In fact, large market shares are growing, and this upward trend is not visible in the portfolio of individuals.
According to Mohebbi, promising conditions in the capital market are not predictable until the end of the year, and a good return on the stock market requires a longer period.
According to him, the index will reach 1,600 units this year.
Sadeghi: The total index reaches one million and 700 units
Milad Sadeghi, an economist, also said about the capital market: “The sale of government bonds may be to the detriment of the stock market in the short run and change the preferences of the operating economy, but in the long run it can cover the budget deficit.” We have to choose between the two options of high inflation and capital market growth.
He added: “The equilibrium point of the total index is one million and 400 units by the end of the year, but it can also grow up to one million and 500 to 600.” It can probably reach 1.7 million, but it will end the year with 1.5 million.
According to Sadeghi, it is not possible to be 100% sure that these equilibrium figures will be achieved and that the growth of liquidity, the preferences of economic agents and the results of negotiations will affect it.
The era of Sharpy growth is over
The expert added: “Sharpi’s growth period in the country’s financial markets is one of the past, and this year and even next year, the growth of markets will probably be in the range of inflation or even lower.” The next significant growth potential is around 1403.
Sadeghi said: “People should not enter the stock market with the expectation of earning Sharpe profits, and they can enter in the range below one million and 300 and leave with about 20 to 30% profit.” According to macro indicators, the market will not reach its previous level at least until 1402.
According to him, now is a good time to enter the capital market and some stocks have been well adjusted, but the view should not be short-term and people should enter with a 4 to 5 year plan.
Diba: Bond sales to be distributed annually
Mojtaba Diba, another financial markets expert, also commented on capital market conditions: “The sale of bonds has had an impact on stock market losses, but it is one of the modern ways for governments around the world to make up for budget deficits.” If the sale of securities is distributed evenly throughout the year, it will be less of a problem.
He added: “The government is probably fluctuating in a kind of market with the uneven distribution of securities, and the stock market is involved in an unbalanced cycle; Especially since the government is the big market in practice.
The stock market downturn will increase next year
Diba said the market is likely to reach 1,700 to 1,800, but will continue to decline to 1,400.
He predicted that there would be more recession in the capital market next year, especially since interest rates are likely to rise; Of course, if Borjam succeeds, Borjam-centric industries such as banks and automakers may have better conditions.
Awareness: The stock market suffers from grammatical economics
Also, Nima Agahi, a financial markets expert, said about the stock market situation: “The capital market is greatly influenced by the dictatorial economy and the decisions of governments, and the whole picture shows the destructive effects of the goals they pursue.”
He added: “Iran’s stock exchange industries have many problems and the directive economy has made it difficult to analyze this area.” But the industries do not seem to have a good outlook.
The index does not experience a sharp decline
Awareness continued: “Nevertheless, the index now seems to be in the right place and the possibility of a sharp decline seems unlikely.” In fact, the bubble era is over.
He added: “The more large industries, especially in areas such as steel and petrochemicals, move away from the dictatorial economy, the better the outlook will be.”
According to Awareness, there are still attractive industries in the stock market; However, their number has decreased compared to the past.
The Challenge of Government Bonds and Grammatical Policy-Making
The financial markets expert said that the main problem of the stock exchange is the irregular mechanism of issuing government bonds and added: “Dealing with the subdivisions of this market, including funds, is another important challenge that stock exchange activists face.”
According to him, the farther the statesmen are from the capital market, the more the interests of the activists are secured, because the market moves by its nature better; Whether ascending or descending.
By reducing grammatical policy-making, the index hits the previous ceiling
Awareness predicted: the index will see the number of one million and 600 to one million and 700 units by the end of the year.
He added: “In an optimistic state, it can hit the previous ceiling by the end of the year;” Provided that grammatical policy-making is reduced, which is, of course, very unlikely.
The financial markets expert said: “But if the mandatory pricing is reduced, the commodity prices are so attractive that we can hope for the growth of the index.” This is because the products of many stock exchange industries have experienced a price increase of 50 to 60 percent over the past year, and the index of one and 800 to one and 900 units is available.
He added: “What frightens large investors is the uncertainty of the government’s view of the capital market; Will the stock market become the smoothing road for the government’s economic plans or will the government respect the originality of this market? If this issue becomes clear in the near future, we can hope for good growth of the index.
Heshmati: The previous ceiling is unlikely for the index
But Mohammad Heshmati, another financial markets expert, considered the realization of the previous ceiling very unlikely and added: the capital market has the capacity to reach the index of one million and 600 to one million and 700 units.
He added: “Currently, the cheapest assets and markets in the country are stocks and the prices are considered reasonable.” The index can reach one million and 700 and even two to three percent more.
The right combination of investment portfolio
Heshmati said about the proper composition of the investment portfolio in the stock exchange: now the markets are looking for the result of Borjam; Because it is not clear whether it is better to keep capital in cash or assets. In such a situation, people must first manage the investment risk and then think about the return.
The financial market expert advised people who do not have much expertise in investing not to go directly to the stock market and go to the funds.
He added: “20% of Porto can be fixed income funds and the rest can be other funds.” Because they are run by experts and have higher liquidity.
Heshmati said that people who want to invest directly can also form a portfolio of those dollar stocks that have a P to E low. In this case, even if the foreign exchange market stabilizes, they will get a return on bank profits. In the event of a dollar jump, the value of the asset also increases.
According to the financial markets expert, although petrochemical stocks have been better in recent months, they can still be a good choice given the conditions of global markets. Some remaining stocks, including bank symbols, are also good options.
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