Forecasting the stock market / stocking to restore confidence

According to Tejarat News, the stock exchange rose from 1,529,000 units to 1,566,000 units on Monday last week. The overall stock index rose 2.2 percent this week.

Nima Naeinian, a capital market expert, told Tejarat News: “Currently, the behavior of shareholders in the capital market has changed and they are buying and selling stocks with more caution, in other words, the stock market is peeling and restoring trust.”

He states that in the past year, the volume of stock market liquidity has increased: this issue has led to continued inflation in the country and increased inflation expectations. On the other hand, many companies have shown in periodic reports that they have made good profits, which has increased the market demand for stocks. Due to the growth that has taken place in the stock market over the past few months, we have witnessed an increase in the inflow of liquidity, which has caused the capital market to gain some confidence.

The capital market expert adds that some industries, including the banking industry, have seen little green days in recent months: Last week, the situation of banks improved a little and was able to get out of the correction a bit. The banking industry is currently tied to the Borjam negotiations, and given that there has been no news of Borjam for more than two months, we have not seen a positive trend in this industry in recent months, while rial groups such as food, Agriculture, cement, etc. have reached a reasonable growth due to inflation issues.

What are the drivers of stock market growth?

Nainian explains: “Other stocks, like commodities, have grown through global price increases, but we are witnessing uncertainty in the banking group, and despite stimuli such as exchange rates, it has not had such an impact on the industry that we must see why.” . The financial balances of this industry were better than before, and now the most influential issue for this industry is the determination of the outcome negotiations.

“According to the rules of the stock exchange issuer, the main company and the consolidated groups have a maximum of four months after the end of the fiscal year that the financial statements have been audited,” he said. To present that they must act as soon as possible so that the shareholders of this industry can better decide for the future of their share. Monthly bank statistics show that there is no significant reduction or even change in the amount of deposits, and in principle, deposits have little to do with foreign markets. Banks have two types of deposit withdrawals, one direct through branches and the other indirect, through fixed income funds, both of which currently have good inflows and have not declined.

The capital market expert states that two factors are influential in the future of banking symbols: Banks have a very positive impact. The second factor is the internal operations of the banks. The balance sheet surgery, which started in 1992, continues, and the financial statements of some of them have been almost optimized, and it can be said that their profit-making process has increased somewhat compared to previous years. So surely this year the financial statements of the banks are better than last year and this is good news for their shareholders.

“Some banks, including Bank D and Ayandeh Bank, have been closed for several months due to ambiguities in their financial statements, which has angered their shareholders,” Nainian concluded. But the rest of the industry continues to operate normally. Given that the capital market is currently in a favorable and balanced situation, it is possible to invest in low-risk symbols of this industry.