According to Tejarat News, the shares of the banking group as market rial shares have always been an important destination for investment during the fall of the dollar. But if the dollar chart and stock market indices are examined, it is clear that since March of last year until now, when the dollar has been in a downward trend, the equal weight index has grown by 28% and the banking group index by about 26%.
Capital market senior analyst Fardin Aghabozuri, continuing to investigate the situation of the banking group’s shares, has answered the question in an interview with Tejarat News, whether the purchase of the banking group’s shares, considering the current conditions of these shares; Is it cost effective?
The importance of risk taking level in buying bank shares
According to Agha Bozurgi, the first issue that should be examined in this regard is the investor’s level of risk-taking or the combination of assets, savings and portfolio. This capital market analyst explained about this: “In my opinion, a specific set cannot be determined for any industry, not only banking. However, the high liquidity ratio and less effectiveness compared to managed areas such as exchange rate and basic goods are the positive points of this group. On the other hand, if the government doesn’t print money directly in the central bank, it has to borrow from the banks, and the three mentioned state-owned banks suffered losses because of this.”
This capital market analyst stated: “In short, I don’t have a specific buying opinion in the banking group, but if someone is risk-averse, he can buy the shares of big banks, including Mellat and Tejarat, as well as private banks such as Saman and Middle East, which are more reliable for investment.”
The role of the central bank in determining the direction of banks
Agha Bozorgi further pointed to the role of the central bank in determining the status of capital market banks and stated: “Finally, the same point that some heads of the central bank addressed before and was not successful, is the issue of the independence of the central bank. If the central bank is really fully independent, it can easily monitor the banking system in such a way that it will be protected from the damages that a part of it has shown in the capital market.
He added: “But it is expedient to look at the banks in the current situation. So that their profitability growth will be temporary. But in the end, according to Mr. Raisi, since banks are seen as piggy banks for the government, and with the current state of Central Bank supervision, there is no positive outlook for banks.”
This was the fourth part of TejaratNews’ interview with Fardin Agha Bozurgi, senior capital market analyst; You can read the first part of this conversation in the link “Why did the banking group lag behind the stock market?” And the second part in the link “Which exchange rate is important for the banking group?” Read and observe. Also, the third part of this conversation can be found in the link “The bright shadow of banks’ corporate governance / Why do banks run away from transparency?” Read and observe.
Read more reports on the capital market page.