Is the upward trend of the index continuing? / Today’s stock forecast is September 20

According to Tejarat News, Mustafa Mohebbi Majd, a capital market expert, told Tejarat News about today’s market trend: “The capital market is also balanced and positive on Tuesday.” Of course, it should be noted that even if the market trend is positive, it is cross-sectional and small.

He explained about the threatening factor in the stock market: At present, due to the uncertainty of the government’s policy in issuing securities, such a wide demand is not formed in the stock market.

Mohebbi Majd explained in this regard: The biggest manipulation in the stock market at the moment is related to out-of-market and related to the Ministry of Economy and the government. Also, the impact of interest rates and bonds is now more important than the dollar rate and has a greater impact on the market situation.

The market expert said about the possibility of the whole index falling again: the possibility of creating a corrective trend in the market is high and the index will fluctuate in the range of 1.3 million to 600 thousand units.

The world of economics wrote:

The stock market in recent days has been affected by news such as the possibility of resumption of Iran’s negotiations with the powers of the parties to the Borjam and the possibility of reviving the Borjam agreement with a decrease in demand. This has led to the outflow of real capital from the glass hall in recent days. However, the agreement and its revival, although it may cause some inflammation in the short term due to lower exchange rates, but in the long term due to lower exchange costs and the elimination of sanctions and financial exchange costs, increase export markets and facilitate import conditions and reduce The cost of parts and raw materials needed for production can increase the dollar revenue of companies, in addition to paving the way for technology to enter the country and advance development plans is a factor that will ultimately benefit the companies in the long run.

Stock dollar phobia

The stock market ended yesterday with a better performance than the previous days. On this day, the stock market index grew by 0.51% and was able to move forward by 7,000 units thanks to the increase in demand for dollar symbols in the stock market. If we do not take into account the positive performance of capital market indicators that grew slightly yesterday, the Tehran Stock Exchange has been on a downward trajectory for a few days now, and any factor among investors is considered as a negative issue, capital market benefits. Until recently, without anything significant happening in the body of the economy, prices in the stock market were rising simply because of rising inflation expectations, and the main indicator of this market, which until recently was a million units in the super channel. Due to the same optimism, it increased by more than 40% in about two months.

These days, however, the train of supply and demand in the stock market has fallen so low that the index has risen to the middle of the channel of 1.5 million units, approaching the bottom of the channel of 1.4 million units; This is a factor that has frightened many capital market participants and caused them to sell their shares more than ever during the past few days, and for fear of being in a downward trend and repeating the negative experience of 1999, at least for a short time, they were given the opportunity to participate in this market. Sorry.

An examination of the net trend of legal purchases in the stock market shows that this ratio has been steadily increasing in recent days (except on Monday, when it reached about 260 billion tomans), while while in recent weeks its scales have been weighing heavily in favor of stock market realities; Now it has reached a limit that in the last 101 working days, shows the withdrawal of more than 4 thousand billion Tomans of capital of small shareholders from the market. The value of small transactions, which had reached a record 11,000 billion tomans in the past month, has now decreased to the point that it reached less than 4,000 billion tomans during Sunday’s transactions. The declining trend of the value of small stock transactions, despite the growth of the total stock index yesterday, continued again and reached about 3396 billion tomans, which was unprecedented since the end of June.

As mentioned in previous reports, in recent days the sales pressure on negative market days has been much higher than the buying pressure on positive days. Based on this, it can be said that in the negative days of the market, a significant part of small investors gave emotional sales, while in the positive days, not much attention was paid to non-emotional variables; Currently, after a growth of more than 40%, they are more inclined to recognize profits in the capital market.