New stimulus for the stock market / What awaits the stock market?
According to Tejarat News, the important point of Monday’s trading on the Tehran Stock Exchange can be considered as important news that transformed the refining symbols and suddenly managed to bring them to the top of the influential symbols in the stock exchange index. On this day, what made the refinery shareholders happy and attracted many investors to the trading of these symbols was the news of a significant increase in refinery profits due to the discount that is supposed to be offered in the sale of feed to the industry from the beginning of this year. According to reports, the fixed rates for the first five months of this year, which have increased significantly compared to last year, will have a significant impact on the profits of companies operating in the industry.
Whereas in the past the feed rate to refineries was based on the export rate with a five percent discount, now it is built to calculate world prices with a five to six dollar discount for refineries; Instructions that increase the discount to about 7% for $ 80 oil.
According to the law, the lower the price of oil on world markets, the higher the discount. This, it seems, could confuse the stock market and investors in the refining industry for a while; Because before this, the situation was such that the increase in oil prices had a positive psychological effect on the investors of this group and caused us to see an increase in the price of refineries as the situation in global markets improved. However, as long as the new law is the basis for companies ‘performance, the fall in oil prices in these markets will be to the benefit of refining companies, and any significant change in oil prices can have a significant impact on companies’ financial statements.
This means that as long as oil is below $ 100, this new model will bring more profit for refineries (than last year). Thus, at a time when refineries around the world do not have a very positive outlook for profitability, it can be argued that the government has been able to re-attract refining stocks by offering this incentive, and to some extent the loss it has incurred in offering refineries over the past year. Buyers were created, reduce.
Another highlight of stock market performance during Monday’s trading was the relative popularity of banking symbols. As mentioned earlier, on this day, trading symbols belonging to export banks and the nation were effective symbols and growth factors of the stock market index.
At first glance, this may seem strange. As we know, the fate of banks depends to a large extent on having good economic relations with other countries, so the agreement of Borjam and its revival can have a significant impact on the future of the industry. Banks, meanwhile, have seen a deepening rift in recent weeks between the two sides, whether the United States, Iran or even Europe, which has relied solely on words and comments over the past few weeks, which could be a good time for a relationship. Make the international financial system more accessible to the industry than ever before.
However, the proper performance of the symbols of this group compared to what was predicted at the beginning of the year can be considered as one of the reasons that have caused the active symbols in this group to be popular again in the past few days. On the other hand, the slow and steady rise in the price of the dollar in recent weeks shows that the possibility of a rial increase in the value of the currency balance of banks in the coming months is not unlikely. If the government fails to overcome the problems caused by its heavy budget deficit, we will probably see the need to revalue the value of banks’ foreign exchange assets as the exchange rate rises in the coming months.
A look at the developments in the banking and refining groups shows that at a time when the resumption of nuclear talks is still in a state of ambiguity, the condition of releasing most of Iran’s blocked assets to return to the negotiating table has become more difficult than ever.
Investors should look at the possible developments in companies and focus on the positive and effective factors of corporate performance, rather than on external factors. The capital market, which has reacted widely to the dollar and its changes since the past, has spent the current year relatively sluggish from what it has seen in previous years due to declining inflation expectations and holding markets to determine the future of the BRICS agreement. Is.
Source: the world of economy