People entered the stock market to escape inflation
According to reports Trade News Quoted from ایسناRoozbeh Shariati, emphasizing that Capital Market In 1400, he spent most of his time seeking to resolve the tensions and events of 1399, he stated: The capital market has undergone a fundamental change in the past two years. Because according to previous government decisions, the capital market was used as an economic arm to compensate for the budget deficit through the sale of government shares. This was while the capital market of Iran was nascent and its activists were less than 500,000 people, in this situation with the widespread invitation of the people, due to lack of adequate education and culture as well as proper infrastructure either by the stock exchange, depository or company Technology and what agencies broke the influx of people led to unfortunate events. This posed such a challenge to the capital market, which is the country’s economic thermometer and determines the transparency of a country’s economy.
People entered the stock market to escape inflation
He continued: “The government, which had problems with the policies of the previous US president and heavy sanctions, had no other solution.” In fact, the government chose to absorb liquidity through the capital market between printing money and borrowing more from banks, which is the indirect method of printing money, and this decision marked a turning point. With the mindset that the local stock market is a place to profit and escape the devaluation of the national currency and 40% inflation, people invested a lot of their capital in the stock market and the regulator or the stock exchange organization, which is the micro-policymaker of the capital market, did not stop them. .
Referring to the policy of the former head of the Stock Exchange and Securities Organization, this capital market analyst said: Some of Mr. Mohammadi’s policies were approved in the winter of 2009, including granting online codes to newcomers after passing e-learning and passing the exam. Another of his decisions was the fluctuation range of 2%. Mr. Mohammadi had the mentality that the floating volume of the market is very low compared to the inflow of money that happens and the advertisement that the government advertises, which leads to a lock in the share of purchases, and it is better to prevent a fluctuation range of 2%.
Shariati continued: After Mr. Mohammadi’s departure, the government’s policy of growth has almost tripled the index Exchange In a short period of time, the growth was due to the speed of money inflow. According to the government, this decision caused the government to withdraw about 35,000 billion tomans from the market in 1399 Fund Have financing. Under these circumstances, ETFs were defined that should not exist in terms of economics. In this process, one item was sold twice! That is, instead of privatizing in the previous government, this method continued the same way as before, and the paper shells were resold to the people. In a low-income fund, instead of the government actually transferring its share to the people through an equation, that is, transferring ownership to the people or even to private or private bodies, it defined the share as a fund. It is as if the sex that was once given to people was sold back to them.
Emphasizing that the absorption of liquidity in the capital market prevented the increase of liquidity, he said: The government financed about 35 thousand billion tomans from the capital market, if this money was to be printed in the banking system because the multiplication coefficient of money is close to eight It is a unit, it increases the volume of liquidity by about 240,000 billion tomans, and naturally selling stocks was a more sensible way. People’s money was burned and locked in the capital market and did not go to parallel markets.
Referring to the rise and fall of the stock market over the past two years, the capital market analyst said: “Both the growth of the total index from 1.2 million units to two million units was not the right growth and the decline that occurred in recent months.” These ups and downs were turbulences that disrupted the capital market and pushed the market into a period of stagnant and over-reactive motion.
From the change of the US presidency to the change of government in Iran
Referring to the change of the US presidency in 1399, Shariati said: “At the same time, we saw the growth of the price of the dollar from 20,000 tomans to 30,000 tomans.” At the time, some saw market growth as a result of rising dollar prices due to the possibility of escalating foreign policy tensions and the possibility of a re-election of Trump and $ 40,000, but eventually the Democrats came to power and the atmosphere was expected to soften. Because in Trump’s time, Iran’s oil sales were estimated at 400,000 barrels per day, and no country dared to cooperate with Iran.
He continued: “After that, the Iranian government changed and in the beginning, the current government was not expected to enter the negotiation space with this speed, but the country’s conditions demanded that the agreement It should be done so that foreign investors enter the country and Iran is able to take back the blocked money and export its oil. According to Bloomberg, Iran has 85 million barrels of oil on the water, which can be sold if negotiations are concluded.
The capital market analyst added: “The year 1399 ended with an index of almost 1.4 million units and the year 1400, while the market was in shock, all this happened due to the existence of various infrastructures such as the base volume, which has small shares in growth, which is slightly floating.” They had and caused the market to enter the trading node at the time of ascent and did not go down at the time of fall because the base volume was not filled. This can be seen in the weight index and the total index, the total index at the beginning of 1400 was in the range of one million and 320 thousand units and at the end of the year was in this range, the weight index is about 20% from the beginning to the end of the year 1400 came lower.
Shariati, stating that the capital market went through a bad spring in 1400, explained: In the spring of 1400, the trading volume was two thousand billion tomans, which was one of the lowest trading volumes in almost 16 months. According to the market law, companies open without fluctuations after the annual general meeting, and this caused the shares to be cashed. This is one of the most important challenges that has always entered our market. The range of fluctuations and the volume of the base are only for the Iranian market and cause liquidity to be prevented. This is while the lack of maturity can be seen in the amplitude of fluctuations in the global markets that are involved in the turmoil of war. For example, during the Russian-Ukrainian war, Russian bank shares plummeted. Whereas if there were fluctuations and base volumes in them, even if the war was over, the market would remain in the momentum space of the sales queues and would continue to do so.
The government’s slogans did not materialize
He continued: “The situation changed a little in the summer of 1400 and according to the slogans of the new government about the capital market, the mentality was that the capital market should be respected and the market mechanism should be respected, mandatory pricing should be eliminated, cars should come to the commodity exchange and Unfortunately, this has not happened so far and this process has changed the mindset of the government’s approach to the market. Because it turned out that contrary to the promises, almost nothing happened. This process continued until we reached the budget crisis. The budget, which saw gas prices skyrocket, taxed raw and semi-raw goods, reversing the mindset of the government’s economic team. These decisions led to the supply of significant numbers of capital market companies and an imbalance in the tax sector. These events were finally eliminated after a general effort by market activists and a ceiling of 5,000 Tomans was set for each cubic meter of gas. If this had not happened, the war between Russia and Ukraine would have damaged many of the country’s vital industries.
The capital market analyst commented on the current state of the market: the overall index Exchange With all the tensions that remained from the previous government and the slogans of the new government, the year 1400 passed. However, the sales rate of companies has risen and the average income of companies has grown. The ATM market has fallen below seven points again. A number that is the average equilibrium point and the capital market has usually not experienced a lower number in recent years. An area that has always been suitable for long-term investment.
Shariati, emphasizing that the state of the capital market will improve, said: “It should be said that the state of the market is affected by two events as a result of political negotiations and war.” Russia And it is Ukraine that leads to rising prices for global products. These two events have increased the ambiguities for the capital market. Let us not forget that financial markets love stability and peace.