Prediction of tomorrow’s stock market / change in cash flow to the stock market – Tejaratnews
According to Tejarat News, the main indicator of the glass hall, which did not start well at the beginning of yesterday’s trading and took a step towards the red side of its fluctuation range, continued to record a turn and was able to finish the third day of the week with a growth of 12,829 units. The total index of the Tehran Stock Exchange advanced by 0.82% to the range of one million and 576 thousand units.
The equal weight index of the capital market surpassed the overall index, which mostly reflects the ups and downs of the index-making stocks, with a growth of 0.93%, and was able to add 4,300 units to its height. At the end, the equal weight representative of the capital market symbols was set at 467 thousand 54 units.
What do the figures of the capital market say?
Last day, in line with the good performance of the whole stock market index, the figures of the capital market, such as the value and volume of transactions, maintained their previous day’s level. The value of small transactions (shares + rights of preemption) was in the range of 6,687,000 billion today so that the value of transactions remains at a relatively high level.
Another important point was the volume of transactions, which was in the range of 13 billion and 900 million traded shares. Placing the volume and value of transactions at a high level in the upward trend shows the validity of the created movement. In general, when the volume of transactions accompanies a price trend and the volume of transactions increases with the increase or decrease of the price, it is a sign that the trend is real.
The total stock market index is on the threshold of resistance of 1.6 million
Tehran Stock Exchange, with its good growth in November and December, is now one step away from the resistance range of 1,587,000 to 1,610,000 units. Now, conservative investors are looking to find a suitable entry point after relative confidence in the upward trend to escape from the brutal inflation of the Iranian economy.
The high importance of the mentioned resistance range goes back to the time when this range prevented the advance of two relatively strong upward waves, once in May of this year and another in September of 1400. This time, the capital market activists hope that after the ups and downs of the capital market in the two and a half years that have passed since the sharp fall in August 2019, this market will make up for its backwardness compared to the parallel markets when the inflationary wave reaches the stock market.
Reasons for cash flow changes
In the first step of the rise, where the capital market experienced a growth of 182,000 units in two weeks in November this year, we still saw the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The remarkable event of the capital market that has appeared in the new step of the market rise is the entry of real people’s money into the flow of stock transactions. This week, in all three trading days, we saw real money entering the market, which indicates a change in liquidity.
The reason should be found in the important and effective component of the capital market, namely the exchange rate. Currently, the main factor in changing the cash flow is the recent increase in the exchange rate. In the past few months, the central bank had kept the exchange rate below its intrinsic value. This issue became a factor to witness the outflow of liquidity from the stock market to the foreign exchange market and other markets such as housing and cars.
Now, however, as the exchange rate rises and it approaches its intrinsic value, it is in a situation of oversaturation and risk to low reward. In a way that we can witness the entry of capital into the glass hall. Because the stock market is the only market that is currently below its real value.
Forecasting the flow of tomorrow’s stock market transactions
Wednesday is considered the last trading day, and due to the variability of influencing factors such as the dollar rate and the interbank interest rate in the final days of the week, the conservative market audience prefers not to do important and high-volume transactions on this day. Therefore, to predict the stock market tomorrow, a balanced trend is expected by maintaining a high level of trading volume and value.
Read the latest capital market predictions on Tejaratnews stock market prediction page.