Stock market forecast for Monday, September 20, 1402 / Will the stock market trend balance? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, Tehran Stock Exchange surprised the shareholders on the first day of the week. Contrary to the predictions of the stock market, Saturday transactions experienced a high negative volume. On the first day of the week, the main thermometer of the glass hall decreased by 0.99 observation points, equivalent to 21,337 units, to the level of 2,129,000 units.

On the other hand, the equal weight index, which shows the same effect of all stocks, had a parallel display and reached a height of 716 thousand units with a drop of 1.32%.

This trend continued with less intensity on Sunday and made the stock market negative. On this day, the value of small transactions also reached a disappointing level of four thousand billion tomans.

Experts believe that the more the trading volume reaches higher levels in the current ranges of the total index, the doubt in the bullish view of the people of the capital market will decrease.

After the first trading day of September, the value of transactions, another factor for evaluating the stock market, has reached its lowest level in this month. Experts emphasize that the continuation of this index above seven thousand billion tomans is necessary for the continuation of the positive trend of the stock market.

Checking the statistics of the ownership of real people on Sunday indicates the withdrawal of real people’s capital from the stock market. The index of capital inflows and outflows at the end of Sunday’s stock exchange reports the outflow of 406 billion tomans from shares, preemptive rights and mutual funds.

The net inflow and outflow of money experienced a significant decrease compared to last week’s transactions. According to experts, this issue is a doubt that has arisen in the medium-term view of stock market people and has strengthened the money outflow side.

Reducing the stock market’s concern about regional conflict

After the historic fall in August 2019, the Tehran Stock Exchange has always gone through upward trends conservatively and with great caution. Recognition of shareholders’ profits quickly after only a few positive days is a perfect manifestation of the behavior of Tehran Stock Exchange.

What is being heard about the developments on the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan indicates that the peace and agreement between the two countries has prevailed. The government of the Republic of Azerbaijan and the Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh agreed on the reopening of two disputed transportation routes, including a key route known as the Lachin Corridor. This matter is important for the capital market because there were concerns about Iran’s conflict in the tension between the two countries and it was said that it had an effect on the market atmosphere.

On the other hand, the American banknote, which touched the psychological limit of 50 thousand tomans yesterday, hit 49 thousand tomans on Sunday. This important issue was communicated to investors in its appendix; The dollar has no intention to retreat further, even to the channel of 48 thousand tomans.

Monday stock market forecast

The intensity of stock offerings in the market on Sunday was clearly lower than the first day of this week, however, this decrease in offerings was accompanied by a decrease in the volume and value of transactions. This shows that the cautious behavior of stock market people reduces their motivation to strengthen the buying side. because currently there are reasonable and sufficient reasons as a driver for the upward trend of the market; The removal of 28 thousand 500 tomans from the basic price calculations of goods in the commodity exchange, the formulation of industrial feed rates and the stability of this law in the next five years, and on the other hand, the favorable condition of commodities are among these things.

On the other hand, the other point of view cannot be denied. Tehran Stock Exchange is traditionally leader-oriented and always has a partial view of the situation of large industries in the market. As one of the largest industries in the country, the automobile and parts group has had a great impact on the overall market sentiment.

Currently, the market is closely monitoring the objection of the Automobile Manufacturers Association to the decisions of the First Vice President and the positions of the Competition Council regarding the increase in car prices. “Ahmed Nemat Bakhsh”, the secretary of Anhman Khodrosazan announced in an interview: the first vice president’s opposition to the 70% increase in car prices in May caused a loss of 9 thousand billion tomans to Iran Khodro in the first three months of this year.

He added: According to the calculations of the support organization since 1400, the prices of Iran Khodro and Saipa products should have increased by 70% in May this year, but unfortunately, with the intervention of Mr. Mokhbar, an average increase of 29% was applied to the products of car manufacturers.

The glass hall is currently in the installation phase. Pumping another positive news in the direction of the market trend will reduce the doubt in the view of the shareholders. Regarding the prediction of Monday’s stock market, experts believe that the fight between buyers and sellers does not seem to have an absolute winner and there is a high probability that balance will be evident in the transactions.

Read more reports on the capital market page.