The shadow of war over the world; Ambiguous landscape in the economy

The previous report was published in January, IRNA reported quoting the BBC. A look at a recent report by the organization clearly shows that the Russia-Ukraine war has directly or indirectly affected many parts of the world economy, and in the short term a clear outlook for the world economy has not been drawn.

The report, entitled “War Stops Economic Recovery,” addresses the economic consequences of the Russia-Ukraine war, as well as the Corona epidemic that various countries have already struggled with.

The report of this institution – which is prepared according to the data of institutions such as the Central Bank of Iran – predicts that Iran’s economic growth rate will decrease from 4% in 1400 to 3% in 1401 and 2% in 1402.

According to the report, the unemployment rate in Iran is expected to increase from 8.9% in 1400 to 2.2% in 1401 and 10.5% in 1402.

The International Monetary Fund forecasts that the World Bank, which last year forecast 2.4 percent economic growth for Iran in 2022, raised its estimate to 3.7 percent.

According to IRNA, in its October 2021 report, the World Bank estimated Iran’s economic growth for 2022 at 2.4 percent.

In its new report, the Western institution has raised Iran’s economic growth by 1.3 percent due to domestic and foreign developments, and predicts that Iran’s economy will grow by 3.7 percent this year.

The World Bank estimates Iran’s economic growth at 4.1 percent last year and about 3.4 percent in 2020.

The World Bank also estimated Iran’s inflation rate at 40.1 percent last year and estimated that it would fall to 37.6 percent this year and 34.8 percent next year.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said in a report that it did not release figures for Afghanistan’s economic performance due to a lack of “political stability”.

A recent report by the International Monetary Fund on world average economic growth in 2022 and 2023 forecasts about 6.3 percent, down 0.8 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, from the previous report (January); The reason for this decline is in anticipation of the ongoing war in Ukraine.

An earlier report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released earlier this year predicted that global economic recovery would continue in the second quarter of this year as the negative consequences of the Omicron outbreak pass. Kelly was different; The war fueled a humanitarian crisis in Eastern Europe and led to widespread sanctions against Russia.

The situation is completely different for Russia and Ukraine, which are directly at war with each other.

The economies of Ukraine and Russia are projected to shrink sharply; In Ukraine, the loss of infrastructure and the departure of citizens are cited as the main reasons for the country’s shrinking economy, and it is predicted that the Ukrainian economy will shrink by about 35% this year.

The weakening of Russia’s economy is also due to the consequences of Western sanctions against Russia and the severance of trade relations between mainly Western countries and Moscow, as well as the loss of trust; The International Monetary Fund predicts that Russia’s economy will shrink by 5.8 percent and 3.2 percent in 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Of course, the economic consequences of this war are not limited to the two countries involved, and beyond these two, it has affected many countries.

Russia is one of the world’s largest suppliers of gas and metals, and Ukraine is a major producer of wheat and corn, and the recent war has led to a rise in the price of these items around the world.

The International Monetary Fund says Europe, Central Asia, the Middle East and North Africa have suffered the most from the rest of the world, and rising fuel and food prices will “affect low-income families around the world.”

Recent events Even before the start of the war in Russia, inflation was rising in many countries, mainly due to the imbalance between supply and demand and rising commodity prices, which is now worse than before.

In many countries, rising inflation has become a major concern; In a number of advanced economies around the world, such as the United States and some European countries, inflation has reached its highest level in 40 years.

The International Monetary Fund says inflation is expected to continue for some time to come, and that rising fuel and food prices in developing countries and emerging economies could “greatly” increase the likelihood of street unrest.

The Middle East, North Africa, the Caucasus and Central Asia are severely affected by rising food prices; In particular, wheat, which was mentioned in a recent report, is expected to continue to increase in price until 2023.

In the Middle East, limited financial resources and declining tourism revenues add to the fact that the situation is worse for oil-importing countries.

The world’s advanced economies are projected to see inflation of 7.5 percent this year; The figure for emerging economies and developing countries is estimated at 7.8 percent, higher than the January report.

** $ 107 oil and corona

In its report, the International Monetary Fund forecasts an average oil price of $ 106.83 a barrel this year; The estimate for 2023 is $ 92.63.

Recently, the price of oil had risen to $ 140 a barrel, which later fell.

In the more than two years since the Kuwait epidemic, countries have spent a lot of money to control the disease, which has increased the debt of many countries; Although many countries appear to have passed the “acute” stage of Covid-19, the death toll is still high, especially among those who have not been vaccinated, it said.

It has also been suggested that recent restrictions and quarantine in some parts of China may disrupt the global supply chain again.

The situation is different, of course, for oil-exporting countries; Rising fossil fuel prices have boosted incomes in these countries; For example, Saudi Arabia’s economic growth for this year is estimated at 6.7 percent, which is an improvement of 2.2 percent compared to the previous report of the International Monetary Fund.

Saudi Arabia has increased its oil production due to rising commodity prices in world markets and in line with the general policies of OPEC Plus.

In total, the economic growth of the Middle East region for 2022 is projected at 4.6 percent.

In 2021, global markets saw an increase in demand, but for various reasons, supply did not meet demand; Among the factors influencing this process are the forced closure of production centers due to the prevalence of corona strains, restrictions on ports, congestion on shipping lines to transport goods, and labor shortages due to restrictions and disease.

As a result, prices for goods and services (excluding food and energy tariffs) have risen in many countries since the beginning of the Corona epidemic.

The International Monetary Fund expects demand to adjust this year with a “slight improvement” in the economy; However, the war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia are said to disrupt supply in some sectors by 2023, a trend that is not limited to the energy market.

Another point that has been addressed in the recent report of the International Monetary Fund is the unemployment rate of countries, which in the general picture mainly indicates the decrease of unemployment rate in many countries.

For example, the unemployment rate in 2021 in the euro area countries was 7.7 percent, which is estimated at 7.3 and 7.1 percent for this year and 2023, respectively.

In a recent report by the International Monetary Fund, the shadow of war in Ukraine has cast a shadow over the world economy; A world that had just turned on the engines of its economy after the heavy costs of the corona.

This report does not provide a clear picture of the world economy until at least 2023.