The stock value became similar to its price in the index of 800 thousand units / 9 months report of companies causes the stock market to grow?

According to the economic correspondent of Fars News Agency, the stock market in the days when the peak of frustration of small shareholders is over, but there are still courses of hope to return to the boom period can be seen around the stock market. Fundamental factors and technical analysis in the current situation show that the market is at its best and only needs a positive and, of course, strong shock to return to the boom period.

In recent weeks, the number of market downturns has increased compared to previous weeks and months. Although the market has slowed down, most of the symbols are in a downward trend, and this has largely led to the departure of small and real shareholders from the glass hall.

* Growth of Rial shares and decrease of dollar shares

According to domestic and foreign events and happenings, in recent weeks and especially last week, the market has been divided into two parts: Rial and dollar shares. Rial shares have been rising and dollar shares have been falling.

With the possibility of reviving Borjam and transmitting positive news from Vienna, the price of the dollar in the market has fallen and this has caused the stock market to fall in dollar shares such as refineries and commodity axes, but on the other hand, news such as the removal of 4200 Tomans , The government’s approach in the 1401 budget to support the stock market, the price of rial shares of the stock market such as automobile and banking groups grew.

* Falling stock prices and placing the total index

But the remarkable thing about this is the stock price. The stock price in the current situation is the same as these symbols when the total stock index was in the channel of 800 thousand units. This shows that the overall index has not moved with stock price changes.

Many experts believe that the overall index has not moved with changes in stock prices, and although some symbols have fallen by more than 70% in the past year and a half, the overall stock index has fallen by less than 30% during this period. This means that on days when almost 70% of companies are facing price declines, the overall index has changed slightly.

* Does the companies’ report return the stock market to growth?

Next week could be a busy week for the stock market. The companies’ 9-month period reports will be published gradually and it remains to be seen how the market will react to these reports. Some experts believe that the market sensitivity to financial reports has decreased and the macroeconomic trends of Iran and the prospect of sanctions have become more important for traders and economic actors.

On the other hand, some experts believe that in the final analysis, the market value of companies will tend to their intrinsic value, and changes in the stock prices of companies that have been profitable can not be declining in the long run.

What do the proponents and opponents of government intervention in the stock market say?

Market conditions in recent months have shown that government decisions and their risks have affected the stock market more than any other factor. The continued outflow of real money is one of the signs of shareholder distrust in the market. Capital flight from the stock market and its migration to other markets has been observed even in the days of index growth. The government’s intervention in the stock market in 1999 created one of the most bitter years of the stock market in the minds of real shareholders.

Many experts and shareholders believe that the stock market is facing a lack of liquidity and government support decisions can lead to injecting liquidity and rising prices. In other words, the stock market needs to attract liquidity to grow, and real shareholders invest in the stock market if they receive a positive outlook from the capital market.

Under such circumstances, the revival of Borjam, the release of part of the government’s blocked revenues, and the lifting of some sanctions could, to some extent, push traders’ expectations toward a boom in the stock market. Therefore, in the coming week, the stock exchanges will look at political news, news of mid-term reports, as well as news related to next year’s budget.

In contrast, fundamental analysts are critical of government intervention, arguing that injecting liquidity into the stock market does not solve market problems. The government must correct the flawed trends in Iran’s economy and macro variables, and the capital market will stabilize only if the government stops shock therapy.

Despite economic sanctions, currency fluctuations, liquidity growth and rampant inflation, the capital market can not be expected to function stably, and what is referred to as capital market support or shareholder support is just an injection of liquidity and shock therapy.

Given these conditions and the existence of two different perspective models in the field of government entry and support to the capital market, it seems that the best model to support the stock market is to create a suitable environment and reduce political risks and decision-making based on non-direct intervention in the capital market. In this way, it can be hoped that the stock market, like all other financial markets, will continue on its way in a logical way, and this will cause shareholders to bring their parked money into the stock market and solve its liquidity problem.

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