Today’s Stock Exchange Forecast October 9 / Which groups are profitable?
According to Tejarat News, most market experts positively assessed the stock market trend in the weekly capital market forecast and introduced petrochemicals and refineries as the market leaders. But not only were the two groups not positive on Saturday, but the overall index also fell.
Rasool Rahimnia, a capital market expert, was asked the reason for the market decline yesterday, and he told Tejaratnews: “The reason for the decline in the stock market index yesterday was the interview of the new central bank governor who announced exchange rate control and inflation. The increase in interest rates has increased in the country’s banking system.
“Last week, although the market trend was positive, the value of trades did not change,” he said. Although the basic market conditions are good, we did not see strong positives, and in the past few days, positive market movements were close to zero.
In predicting the market in the coming days, Yousef Hashemi, a capital market expert, said: “It seems that the general movements of the capital market will be positive in the coming days.” Because influential variables such as rising global prices for oil, gas, commodities and food products have given positive signals to the market.
The world of economics wrote:
This week, the Tehran Stock Exchange started trading with a drop of 1.5 percent in the overall index. This caused the mentioned indicator to reach the range of one million and 465 thousand units. It seems that the three factors of investors’ need to identify profits at the current stage, along with the fall in the price of the dollar and its psychological impact on the capital market, have been able to play a significant role in the decline of this day; In addition, the risk of reducing political risks has reappeared, and this, as in recent weeks and months, could frighten investors.
Risk reduction reflection
What can be seen by examining the inflow and outflow of money of real investors and different groups is that the opinion of micro-investors towards the dollar industries of the stock market has suddenly changed. It is not unreasonable to see the reason for this change in reducing the expected risk and hope for the resumption of nuclear negotiations in the capital market.
Following the news trend over the past few days indicates that the ambiguous future of the UN Security Council talks between Iran and the international powers has become longer. Is. On the other hand, a review of these developments indicates that one of the Iranian companies has been removed from the long list of sanctions, and many believe that this withdrawal indicates the opening of a narrow circle of sanctions to encourage Iran and return the country to nuclear talks.
Whatever the outcome of this issue, over the past few days it has been able to negatively affect inflation expectations and reduce the price of the dollar in the open market to some extent. A look at the developments in the foreign exchange market in recent weeks shows that the ups and downs of prices in this market have brought the dollar price back to the range of 27,750 tomans, which during the previous two weeks of trading, many expected the exchange rate to stabilize at 28,000 tomans. they had. This had led to a significant increase in the world price of gas on the price of the symbols of the chemical group, the most important of which are petrochemical companies; Have.
On the other hand, to give a significant increase in feed rate discount in the refining group. Now, as the possibility of starting a new round of negotiations becomes more serious, there is a suspicion that reaching an agreement on reviving Borjam, as in 1994, will lead to a serious drop in the exchange rate and thus neutralize all positive events on the financial statements of listed companies. It makes sense to weigh such a thing given the high impact of currency prices on companies ‘sales value, and since the potential effects of a nuclear deal, such as a rapid exchange rate drop, are not immediately apparent in companies’ financial statements, it is natural that the market weighs more in the short term. Give political to possible changes.
Of course, considering that according to many economic experts, the high weight of the budget deficit and its figure of about 300 thousand billion Tomans will play an important role in the future developments of the economy, it is not clear that even if an agreement is reached, it is possible like the events after the year. 92 to mid-96 to see the stock market stagnation or not. All of this, along with Foreign Minister Amir Abdullahian’s talk on the principles of an agreement with Saudi Arabia, suggests that not only in the nuclear deal but also in relation to the country’s influential neighbors, the possibility of improved relations has increased and this could increase the political risks to Iran’s economy. Significantly reduce.