Today’s stock market forecast is October 27 / waiting for stability

According to Tejaratnews, the capital market has had a negative trend in recent weeks due to the negative economic and political news related to the dollar exchange rate and the Barjam negotiations, and most of the days, most of the stock exchange groups have been accompanied by price declines. But which factors are influential in the capital market trend?

Mohammad Aram Bonyar, a capital market expert, says that in the first six months of this year, corona restrictions, damage to the economy, frequent power outages and their effects on high-consumption electrical industries, as well as changes in government, had a profound effect on the overall capital market trend.

But in the second six months of this year, with the peak of the vaccination process and the full establishment of the government and the clarification of policies, it seems that the emotional atmosphere in the stock market will decrease.

The stock market expert believes that with the increase in the price of commodities in world markets and the increase in oil prices, the movements of commodity-based symbols and refinement of the stock market will also make important changes. It also seems that the rial income of companies will increase in the second half of the year.

Aram Bonyar says that according to the published statistics, the government should sell 130,000 billion tomans of bonds this year, and about twice this amount, ie approximately 250 billion tomans, should be earned from the sale of shares.

The world of economics wrote:

Depending on the circumstances

This may seem obvious at first, but as in times of boom, investors have a long-term and higher profit horizon, and a person may, as in the early months of ’99, prepare for more than 50 or 100 percent, even when markets are volatile. And the same activists may be satisfied with an increase in the number of trades to a profit of 5 to 10% or even less. Therefore, accumulating money in the floor of brokerage or bank accounts is also an approach that is applied in accordance with the situation of asset markets, during which the investor may not find a good reason to participate in the relevant market due to ambiguity in the situation.

In such a situation, if other parallel markets are not very attractive, money accumulates in the accounts and creates a situation in which people are either satisfied with a small return such as bank interest or for an indefinite period even by accumulating their assets in brokerage accounts and bank accounts. In practice, they show a kind of uncertainty. Naturally, because uncertainty, if observed by a small segment of market participants, can not be considered as an accurate evidence for the analysis of the overall market situation, however, if we see the same situation in the behavior of a large number of market participants, we can see it in Examine the macroeconomic context and risks of a market.

Waiting for stability

Is money being traded on the stock exchange right now? As mentioned earlier, money laundering refers to a situation in which investors have enough money to invest, yet they avoid investing because the investment situation is not favorable for them or they do not have a clear understanding of the situation. .

It seems that such a situation has prevailed on the Tehran Stock Exchange in recent weeks; While a review of stock market trading trends in recent weeks indicates that with the return of the overall stock index to lower levels, investors’ willingness to continue investing has decreased compared to the past. A comparison of the stock market situation with other parallel markets indicates that the relative stability of the exchange rate, coupled with the housing market downturn and the not-so-directional fluctuations of the coin in recent weeks, has led many to keep their money out of the trading cycle of all these markets. Park in current accounts or brokerages.

The uncertainty described earlier has manifested itself well in the value of mutual fund transactions and the increase in the value of their assets over the past few weeks.

In recent weeks, a look at the net asset value of the funds shows that people’s desire to be directly present in the markets, especially the stock market, has decreased, and even with the stock market and OTC entering a recession in the last two weeks, the asset value of the funds compared to the trend. It has not decreased since the beginning of the year. An examination of the trading value of ETF traded funds shows that the daily trading value of these funds has decreased over the past few days as the stock market continues to decline, however. The lack of acceptance of their transactions does not mean a significant outflow of money from these funds. Thus, despite the fact that in many days of the stock market, we saw a negative real net purchase, but it seems that the money has not left the market.