What are the consequences of housing price statistics? – Tejarat News
According to Tejarat News, the new consequences of housing price statistics by official institutions have been revealed in the form of a golden pass to housing inflation. The last comprehensive report published by the Iranian Statistics Center on housing price and rent developments in the country is related to one year and one season ago, i.e. the winter of 1400, and the central bank has not published monthly reports on housing price pulses in Tehran since 6 months ago. The appearance of the story is that the politician has prevented the release of official statistics to prevent the market from being disturbed and thus to control inflation. But the fact is that the policy of imprisoning housing statistics has not achieved this goal.
Seizure of housing statistics causes inflation
Keeping the atmosphere of the housing market calm and preventing inflation caused by inflammation in the market is a good goal pursued by the policy makers of the housing sector, but not only this goal has not been achieved with the policy of not publishing official statistics of price developments and housing market transactions, but there are evidences that show It shows that the direction of inflation in the housing market, at least in terms of the suggested prices of property sales, has been recently reversed due to the ignorance of the developments taking place in the market; In this way, housing inflation has changed direction at least in the proposed prices. As months have passed since the start of the housing price freeze, there is no doubt that the housing statistics freeze not only cannot help to calm the atmosphere of this market, but also acts as a goal pass for the continuation of the rule of inflammation in the developments of the real estate transfer market. Also, this wrong procedure allows the beneficiaries of high real estate inflation to use any tool at their disposal to keep the price level high by maneuvering in the market and not allow housing to return from the excess price jump.
However, the recent will of the publishers of official housing price statistics is to disable the thermometer; However, even in this way, the events of the housing market have not stopped. The change in real estate inflation, whether positive or negative, is happening and the market has not stopped moving, but in the meantime, ignorance of the degree of fever has not made the patient feel better. But these days, the detention of official data from the pulse of the real estate market has resulted in a new complication, for which perhaps the interpretation of pass goal to housing inflation is not enough, and “golden pass goal” is a more accurate interpretation.
The new complication is that official judicial experts, whose main mission is to expertly identify the price of a property in the trading market, are faced with a disruption in their work and are forced to go to the informal market to find out the price of the property. The work of official justice experts is very different from the action that the government takes in the field of pricing by setting an order price. They do not set a price for a property, but discover its true price according to the supply and demand situation in the market and the location of the property. Referrals to official experts are both the general public and legal entities, in which the weight of legal entities is greater. Legal entities must hold a tender to buy property, and to sell it, they put their properties on auction. The basis of holding tenders and auctions is to determine the base price, for which an official expertise is required. Official justice experts have 10 to 12 common methods that they use to find out the price in two ways: “exact property price” and “price estimate”.
Methods such as search, field research of the market, interviews with market participants, interviews with real estate brokers, discovering the final price of the property, inductive methods, etc. are among the methods that official judicial experts usually use to finally declare that the real value How much is a property or a general estimate of its price range? But along with these methods, there is also an accurate guide and ruler that always helps them to discover the price, and that is the official statistics of the Iranian Statistics Center on housing market developments, and from 2016 onwards, the central bank’s statistics on prices and monthly transactions. The housing is in Tehran, which acts as a supplementary ruler. According to a group of these official experts, official statistics such as engineering balance have always been used by them along with other methods, but now this ruler and guide board has been taken away from them.
Investigations show that, from the point of view of a group of official experts, preventing the release of official statistics on housing price changes is considered a big political error, and in the meantime, not only lawyers, but also ordinary people have suffered from this situation. A common example is when people refer to an official expert when they intend to receive facilities from the banking network in exchange for the best deed of a property. In these cases, it is necessary to estimate the value of the property so that the banking network can pay a facility equivalent to a part of the property’s value based on the credit rating of the applicant. Now, it is more difficult than ever to accurately estimate real estate prices in the absence of official statistics on transactions. The turning off of the real estate market guide has forced housing price discoverers to seek refuge in the informal market, and this method, which used to be one of several common price discovery methods, has now become the only method they use. In other words, referring to real estate brokers to find out the price of housing these days has become the only possibility to obtain information about some real estate cases, and this is while obtaining accurate information from the brokers, considering that there is always an equation of benefits at different levels. High housing prices are defined for them, if it is not considered impossible, it must be a very difficult task. Some experts say that in recent weeks, it was not affected by the announcement of housing price changes and inflationary changes in this market, which happened to be positive at one point, and if the official statistics were published, it would probably be reflected in the form of zero or negative inflation, due to changes in the proposed prices of property sales. There has been a change in the market and a group of sellers have turned to announcing prices higher than expected.
This situation has actually led to the sending of some official experts to the informal market and has disrupted the price discovery process by them. Therefore, the chaotic situation of the housing market caused by the non-disclosure of statistics is considered as a golden pass to housing inflation.
The problem of investment companies
Another working group that is affected by the imprisonment of housing price statistics, which seems to be an eternal imprisonment due to the prolongation of its period, have had problems in the process of doing their work, experts active in investment holdings, welfare funds and employee futures, etc. These are organizations. Usually, investment companies and their sub-funds have a portfolio of assets, part of which is real estate. The usual procedure is that these companies update the value of their assets, including real estate, on a monthly basis or in periods of two to several months.
Studying the instructions for discovering the price of real estate in some of these organizations, which sometimes have some form of government money and are affiliated with an institution such as a bank, indicates that explicitly in the content of these instructions regarding real estate located in Tehran, refer to official statistics. The central bank and statistics center are mentioned in this area. For example, in one of the cases, it has been emphasized that the current value of the land and buildings of a certain institution is equal to 80% of the latest official expert price or the purchase price adjusted by the average price index of Tehran properties announced by the central bank and adjusted by the average price index of the entire country, which is The official form has been announced by this institution.
The two-way fuel of the first houses
In the dumb situation that Tehran’s housing market is suffering from, and it is not easy to get information about the prevailing realities, the first-rate houses lose more than any other group. Once, they suffered from the severe inflation of real estate, which began in the second half of last year after a year of stability, and they did not have the opportunity to restore their ability to enter the trading market, and now that the new mortgage ceiling has been announced. and despite the lack of sufficient funds to cover the purchase of at least half of the value of a moving unit, it can be an incentive for a group of first-timers to enter the housing market. A group of loan recipients to buy a house if they can afford to pay the installments, instead of choosing the bureaucratic route of getting a loan from the place of purchase of bonds, they prefer to receive loans on the property deed of one of their close relatives such as parents; But during the process of receiving facilities, they face the challenge of finding out the expert price of real estate. It seems that there is always an obstacle for the homeless to buy a house; One day in the form of being thrown out of the market due to the increase in housing inflation, another day due to the non-payment of mortgage loans, and now due to the problems that can arise in the way of discovering the real price of real estate.
Source: World Economy