What are the ineffective clauses of the 10 household rules? / Are the banks leading the market tomorrow?
According to Tejarat News, the Minister of Economy recently spoke in an interview about 10 decrees to improve the situation in the capital market. 10 orders, some of which experts believe are inefficient, and some of which, if implemented, will have a very positive effect on the stock market.
Salman Nasirzadeh said in this regard: 10 decisions have been taken by the government’s economic headquarters. The most marginal issue is the correction of the fuel price coefficient of the petroleum and steel industries. This amount was announced in the budget equal to the feed rate, but eight days after the submission of the budget bill, the rate was adjusted to 40%. The argument is that eight days ago, in the budget bill, the government announced the fuel price of industrial gas as equal to the feed rate and put additional pressure on the capital market. This has disrupted the supply and demand process and now it is correcting it!
The stock market expert continued: “This is in a situation where the revenue clause from the fuel rate reform, which is considered in the 1401 budget amounting to 94,000 billion tomans, has not yet been approved or rejected by the parliament.” Therefore, this clause does not work at the moment. If the parliament agrees, the surplus costs that were expected to be imposed on these industries will not be met. Because 40% is not significantly different from the last 30%. But overall, this is a weakness for the government. The government submits a bill that puts the market under pressure and amends it eight days later. In any case, if this clause is approved by the parliament, the government will face a reduction in revenue, for which it must define a new source.
There is still ambiguity in the stock market
He stated: The issue of issuing government bonds related to controlling the flow of cash is not very effective. The government has a revenue deficit and has at least 88 bonds in 1401 and 124 bonds in maturity. The budget bill also states that if oil resources are not realized, the government is allowed to issue bonds in any amount. Therefore, in this section, governance policies are preferable to the capital market.
The expert said: in paragraph 10, the central bank is obliged to intervene in the interbank market and the secondary market and keep the interest rate ceiling at 20%. This is inefficient. Of course, in theory, this is a positive step, but when the issuance of bonds accelerates, it will also affect the interest rate and increase it.
“In general, the capital market has already had these commands,” he said. In May of this year, Dehnavi announced similar cases, but did not help the market much. Exporters’ incomes remain unclear, and the role of government intervention in pricing is still unclear. The more we move towards the clarification of ambiguous points, the more the market task becomes clear.
The formula for determining the gas rate must change
Nasirzadeh pointed out: The current formula for gas prices is 50% domestic rate and 50% international quadruple. There are two European hubs that are consumers and have high rates. This formula needs to change, and hobbies like American art or Qatar can be the basis. Otherwise, 5000 Tomans, which is determined as the ceiling, imposes a high cost on industries. We are in an uneconomic environment. Unlike the rest of the world, domestic gas prices are low and industrial gas prices are high. Under these circumstances, industries that are profitable and can have development plans are weakened by these misguided provisions.
Salman Nasirzadeh said: the whole market is still ambiguous and the budget bill is still the most important factor that has overshadowed the capital market. This has severely limited the flow of liquidity. Trading volume is still low and the provisions that are important for the capital market are still not rejected or approved.
Tomorrow is ahead of the banks
The capital market expert said: “The market trend will be balanced tomorrow and banks are expected to have better conditions due to currency exchange.” Now the market situation is waiting for the budget provisions to be determined and we will not see any significant decline and growth until this ambiguity is resolved. Determines the task of budget lines for the market. Fuel rates determine the status of refineries and steels, and exporters’ income taxes can be very influential if approved or rejected. A sharp decline or strong growth will depend on what is approved or rejected in the budget.
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