Why did the banking group lag behind the stock market? – Tejarat News

According to Tejarat News, capital market expert Fardin Agha Bozurgi discussed with Tejarat News the situation of the stock market banking group, which you can read in the first part of this report. According to him, the main basis of investors’ view for investing in the stock market is foresight and predicting the performance of industries in the future, and accordingly, if an industry is seen as growing, it will naturally be more welcomed and its p/e will increase. .

Reduction of hope for investment in the banking group

Aghabouzuri states that, however, in industries such as the banking industry, which are still in the loop of losses and increasing accumulated losses after this amount of asset revaluation, this view makes the coefficient and the amount of valuation that investors place on this industry lower.

He emphasizes on this: So, for example, if all industries have grown by an average of 40% in the past years, this number was 20-25% for banks. Because investors see a lower growth rate for this group and it will cause the p/e of the industry to drop.

Agha Bozurgi further adds: Therefore, it is safe to say that the average p/e of the banking group, from loss-making and low-profit banks to those that recognize a relatively good profit, is about four. If the average p/ettm of the market is around 7 to 7.5. This issue has reduced investors’ hope towards the banking group.

Banks turn off their lights in the midst of currency pressure

Although banks have disappointed stock market traders, a fundamental analysis of the banking group suggests that the group has outperformed the overall market over the past year. For example, the group of banks and credit institutions have registered higher gross profit growth and gross profit margin compared to the market as a whole.

In this regard, Agha Bozurgi says: If the total income and profit of listed companies and industries is compared with the total profit of listed companies, about 114 of the identified profits of listed companies are about 114 for refineries, 100 for petrochemicals, and 46 for banks. .

In this regard, he adds: The movement of the dollar that occurred in 1999 and 1400 and until the end of 1401 was the most important component of increasing the profitability of commodity or export-oriented companies. But since the government does not accept the exchange rate in the free market, the currency-oriented group has faced resistance to profitability.

This senior analyst of the capital market states: The bank group has used this repression in the currency market in a favorable way, and this has caused this group to be considered abandoned compared to currency-oriented groups and to show the reality of profitability. But if, instead of comparing one year to another, the long-term period of four to five years is considered, the situation is slightly different. Because in this period, the growth trend of banks’ profitability does not even reach the inflation rate and stock market indices!

But in relation to the one-year period, it should be said that since the main focus of the government was to control the effects of the exchange rate increase in industries and products, this caused the bank group to do its work and increase its profitability compared to other industries. Increase.

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