Community Group – Fars News Agency: It was on the 10th of March of this year that some media outlets claimed that Bahram Salvati, the director of the Iranian Migration Observatory, was banned from being interviewed by the government’s deputies. After the widespread publication of this news a few days later, Ruhollah Dehghani Firouzabadi, the President’s Vice President for Science, Technology and Economy, said about Salavati being banned from interviewing: Our emphasis is on not providing false information to the people.
In his press conference, which was held in the building of the presidential scientific office, in response to a question about the banning of interviews with the director of the Iranian Migration Observatory, he said: I do not know who did this banning of interviews and why such an issue was raised, but it should be noted. The Iranian Migration Observatory, as a specialized research institute in the field of migration, based on data and statistical information, only expresses the results of studies and research in this field. One should be aware that the research results of this observatory should be considered in its own form and position and should not be considered as a statistic of a government or sovereign institution.
Not long ago, the Migration Observatory, referring to the statistics of Iranian immigration in 1401, announced: In the last three years, Iranians have made the most efforts to obtain British and Canadian visas, and most of them were startup, investment or self-employment visas. Also, out of 6,000 businesses in the country in the May 1401 job vision survey and Iran Migration Observatory, a total of 77% have declared that they have a very high desire to migrate.
In line with these researches, today with “Ebrahim Fathi, Dean of the Faculty of Communication and Media, University of Broadcasting“about how”Researches of Iran Migration Observatory” And we discussed their navigation methods. You can read this conversation below:
* Fars: Sometimes some media refer to people or centers that cannot be relied upon to obtain statistics. Regarding the issue of migration, can we trust the surveys of centers such as the Iranian Observatory Center in terms of national surveys, and in other words, reliable research methods should be used. What characteristics should they have?
First, we must talk about opinion polling, a desirable and generalizable survey; That is, what should be the conditions of the survey that is carried out so that we can generalize its results in the statistical population. The first principle that needs to be followed to generalize opinion poll results is the principle of “random sample selection”.
The second principle is “proportionate distribution of the sample in the statistical population” and at this stage the distribution of the sample in proportion to the statistical population must be observed.
The sampling frame is the third principle that should be considered in these surveys, and in the final stage, the measurement tool is a questionnaire or questions, and the tool must have validity and reliability. If these four principles are observed in every opinion survey and survey, we have a desirable and generalizable opinion survey, you can generalize the result of such a survey and opinion survey to the entire statistical community.
* Persia: Do you also consider the sample size? You did not mention it!
The sampling frame also includes the sample size. The sampling frame is to determine the sample size based on the value of the standard deviation or population variance and the error value. Sometimes two types of generalizations are considered from a survey or opinion survey research. Generalization to the entire statistical population (for example, the whole of Iran) requires a sample size, and at the same time, it can be generalized to any of the provinces (point-to-point generalization), another generalizable sample size is required.
Researches that make opinions!
* Fars: Considering the principles you mentioned, let’s go to the researches of the Iranian Migration Observatory, how do you see the validity of these researches?
The purpose of this research was to measure the desire or willingness of Iranians to migrate, from the topic and title it is understood that they want to generalize to the whole of Iran. Because the title includes all Iranians, it means the statistical population of Iran.
In the methodological part, the research is very weak, it has not provided sufficient explanations about the sampling frame and has not mentioned any issue, the principle in sampling is that the number and size of the sample is proportional to the statistical population, that is, the selected sample from Tehran is proportional to the population. Tehran, the selected sample from Shiraz should be proportional to the population of Shiraz and other provinces of the country separately, and so to speak, they should have followed the sampling framework, which unfortunately is not followed in online research.
The principle of randomness is not observed in this research; Because this survey is the same as other opinion surveys and surveys or online needs surveys. In online surveys, the sample is not selected by the researcher in order to comply with the principle of randomness; Rather, the researcher chooses the sample that destroys the basis of the generalization. In general, failure to comply with the principle of fairness makes survey research ineffective.
The researcher puts a questionnaire in the media for a long time, the questionnaire of this survey has been in the media for about two months and the researcher encourages people of the same color and opinion to answer it. Here, the principle of randomness is violated, under these conditions, this opinion poll cannot be generalized in any way. This opinion poll or polls that are conducted in this way are referred to as polls for forming opinions. That is, the researcher intervenes and encourages some people to come and answer the researcher’s questions as he wants. For example, the survey that was conducted about the Persian Gulf. The survey was such that you should vote on whether the Arabian Gulf or the Persian Gulf?! According to the research method, the researcher should select the samples and not encourage anyone to go and participate in the survey.
* Fars: Regarding the other problems of the surveys of the Iranian Migration Observatory, which parts can be mentioned?
Another one of these issues is the observance of the distribution of the sample according to the sections of the statistical population, the writings show that the distribution of the country sample was not observed at all in this survey. Because both the sample size is insufficient and it is impossible to observe the sample distribution in online surveys. On the other hand, when a questionnaire related to students and graduates is placed online in a media or platform, some people who are not members of the statistical community except students and graduates enter the media and complete the questionnaire.
The researcher does not have any control tools to control the respondents whether I am a student or not?! I have not been apart of your statistical community at all and you have no control to control the respondent. So, they have not followed the principle of randomness, the principle of distribution, the sample, the principle of characteristics and the sampling framework.
Honesty is the missing link in online questionnaires
* Fars: Honesty in answering questions has always been one of the important issues in questionnaires, has this principle been considered in this survey?
The next problem that affects all such online opinion polls is the principle of respondent dishonesty. Because there is no control question or trap question to measure the honesty of the respondent. Even in some cases, in face-to-face polling, the researcher is put to work. The principle of dishonesty is very prominent. It is not known how many times respondents entered and answered it! For example, I can log in with three IPs and complete and answer the questionnaire. There is no place in this poll to check the honesty of the respondent. Or the principle that only I answer this questionnaire only once.
The principle of non-observance of transparency is another important issue, that is, the researcher has questions that are marginal and directional. The desire to migrate is a concept, even higher than the structure, which cannot be measured with a single question. Spectrization should be done in this regard, the desire to migrate has economic, social, cultural, political, and security dimensions, in both dimensions of origin and destination. It should be taken into consideration in measuring the desire to migrate, and in this survey, the dimensions of the desire to migrate have not been addressed, as a result, the desire to migrate has not been measured.
In all survey researches, the validity and reliability of research tools should be evaluated. In this survey, there is no reference to the reliability and validity of the measurement tool, in scientific researches, the expression of validity and reliability is a necessity of a scientific research. The lack of reliability and validity in the research of the key indicators of migration or monitoring the desire to migrate of Iranians is the basic problem of the research. Definitely, the failure to talk about the reliability and validity of this important research is due to the fact that the researcher does not know about the reliability and validity at all, or he knows, but it is not included, and both results of this research face problems.
In a word, the lack of reliability and validity shows that the researcher of this questionnaire did not have the necessary expertise for this task. If the work is to be done in a specialized way, the desire and its different dimensions should be taken into account. In the questionnaire, different dimensions should have been stated and even the contribution of each dimension should have been stated. For example, if they want to go to a certain country, they should see that this desire is a cognitive desire, an emotional desire, etc. These things should also be measured and stated that this has not been done.
In online research, supervision is not possible
* Fars: Is it possible to achieve a favorable result in online research?
Monitoring is not possible in online research, so it should be based on the impossibility of monitoring. You consider any research and educational activity, it has a principle that is supported by supervision. A reliable opinion poll conducted by a reliable center performs 2 types of tangible monitoring and invisible monitoring. This principle has not been observed in this opinion poll.
The next problem that exists in online opinion polls is the principle of uncertainty, which means that the answers are not guaranteed. There are a number of intruders who infiltrate opinion polls. The security officials make advertisements and warn people not to open links sent by unknown people because they have not been monitored at all, there are guarantees and doubts. For example, I have seen a doctor who took an online opinion poll, but because the police said Do not open any link and there is a possibility of fraud, I will not open that link again. For these reasons, online opinion polls are always facing problems. Unfavorable opinion polls, or online opinion polls, are faint in research.
The relevant researcher should have written in his results and research report that the results of this desire to migrate cannot be generalized to Iranian society. If the researcher had the ethics of the research profession, he would definitely not have made the results of this opinion poll available to the public opinion and the media, or he would have been fair and explained that it cannot be generalized.
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