Gas Crisis -12 | One billion liters of diesel savings resulted in lower domestic gas consumption / air pollution

According to the economic correspondent of Fars News Agency, Iran, as the second holder of gas resources in the world, has a high capacity to produce gas and even create a role in the regional gas market, but in recent years, due to the unbridled trend of domestic consumption, even completed all phases of Pars. The South has also not been able to meet demand, as the gas balance has already turned negative and total demand has surpassed gas supply.

According to the National Gas Company forecasts of gas production and consumption in the cold 4 months of 1400, the intensification of gas consumption in the domestic and commercial sectors will cause major industries such as cement and steel, petrochemicals and power plants to face fuel shortages, and this is more unprofitable. It will cost the country $ 20 billion.

* Decoding the program of the Ministry of Oil for winter fuel supply

Table 1 shows the National Gas Company’s forecast of gas production and consumption of gas and liquid fuels by different sectors; According to this table, due to the negative gas balance of the country and considering the priority of gas supply for the domestic sector, the following four cases are predicted.

• 30% of the capacity of gas feed petrochemicals is decommissioned.
• 50% of gas power plants are fueled by diesel and diesel.
• 75% of the fuel required for the cement industry is supplied by furnace oil.
• 35% of steel production capacity goes out of circuit.

Table 1- Plan of the Ministry of Oil to supply winter fuel in the cold 4 months of 1400

* How was the production and consumption of gas in December 1400?

In the case of the “gas crisis”, four solutions were proposed to solve the gas crisis in the country, which are:

1. “Controlling the consumption of high-consumption home subscribers” by modifying tariffs and installing smart meters
2. “Consumption control in government offices” with the implementation of the directive of the first vice president
3. “Implementation of consumption optimization projects” to prevent gas loss in low-efficiency equipment
4. “Supporting people for optimal gas consumption” by taking some low-cost and effective measures

Now, after December, one of the cold 4 months of 1400 is not bad. Before going into the details of the second solution (consumption control in government offices), let’s take a look at the performance of the Ministry of Oil in providing winter fuel in December of this year; Table 2 shows the situation of gas production and consumption in December (last month).

According to the table below, the Ministry of Petroleum has almost developed its gas production plan well and the realization rate of natural gas production and supply has been 99%; Also, gas consumption in the domestic and commercial sectors is lower than expected, and for this reason, with the supply of 512 million cubic meters per day, all the needs of this sector have been met.

The reduction of gas consumption in the domestic and commercial sectors has caused the Ministry of Oil to be more open to supplying the gas needed by major industries and power plants, and for this reason, the realization rate of the program in these two sectors has been 115 and 120 percent, respectively.

Table 2 – Status of gas production and consumption in December (unit: million cubic meters per day)

The reduction in gas consumption in the domestic and commercial sectors also led to the burning of 33 million liters less liquid fuel per day in major industries and power plants, which has prevented the escalation of the unfavorable air pollution situation in different provinces and cities.

Despite the government’s plan to fulfill 100% of its obligations for gas exports, the realization rate in December was 88%.

* It is not possible to increase gas production in the next 4 years

In this regard, the Minister of Oil, Javad Oji, on the issue of gas shortage in the last four cold months of the year said: “Last year, we had a gas deficit of about 160 million cubic meters in some days of the cold season, especially in the northern and northeastern provinces.” With the growth trend of consumption in the country, which is between 8 to 10 percent, in the cold season, we will have a gas deficit of up to 200 million cubic meters per day.

According to experts, due to the slowdown in the implementation of gas field development plans in the previous government, it will not be possible to increase gas production in the country for the next four years. And if we do not pay attention to the implementation of consumption optimization projects and the continuation of the jump in consumption in the domestic sector, the volume of damage to the industry and the country’s economy will certainly increase in the coming years.

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