Housing price forecast in the second half of this year
A housing market expert said: the 1 billion Toman youth housing loan did not receive any kind of acceptance due to the 15-year period of depositing in its fund and will lead to failure, but the 480 million Toman construction or purchase facility can be effective.
According to reports Economic monitoring: Housing It is one of the basic needs of every person and not having it Housing It brings many problems for families. The basic need of young people to get married Housing It is personal, but due to the high price of houses in Iran, many young people can not own even after many years Housing To be. The government should be in the department Housing To be able to control housing prices with constructive and effective programs.
“Seyyed Mohammad Mortazavi” stated in this regard: نس The relative prosperity of the housing market in September was due to several factors. The first reason is related to the relocation peak in September, which occurs every year. We will not have such a volume of traffic in the coming months and transactions in this sector will decrease.
He added: “Another issue is related to general inflation.” However, people in the society are witnessing the growth of all goods, from food to clothing, home appliances, and so on. This inflation is worrying and the fear of rising prices made those who decided to buy a house implement this decision.
A member of the board of directors of the Mass Builders’ Association said that the experience of failing government housing projects has also been effective in buying housing in September. They do not have much hope for the success of the housing production and leap project. For this reason, some people started buying houses with the current resources at their disposal.
Mortazavi continued: مسکن Housing applicants به can not easily believe that the government will be able to build one million housing units per year. Of course, it has been said that the units are to be built through legal and supportive platforms such as the National Housing Fund, which we hope will be implemented.
Regarding the effectiveness of recently approved mortgages, he said: “The one billion toman youth housing loan did not receive any kind of acceptance due to the 15-year period of deposit in its fund and will lead to failure, but the 480 million toman facility for construction or purchase It can be useful. Regarding youth housing, experience has shown that in a period of 15 years, all goods in Iran can experience several price fluctuations and jumps, and after 15 years, it is not possible to take effective action with one billion tomans.
31.7 million Tomans per meter of house in Tehran
This housing market expert emphasized: a housing construction loan that can be transferred to the buyer up to 480 million Tomans will have a better effect on the market; Because it is somewhat in line with current prices.
Regarding the housing market forecast for the second half of 1400, Mortazavi said: “Due to the inability of the demand side and the high prices offered by the owners, I believe that the slope of increasing transactions will decrease in the coming months.” Therefore, I do not think that the growth rate of about 40% of the transactions that we had in September will continue.
He added: “As for the price, if the government can control the inflation of construction materials, we will not have significant growth and it will probably be less than general inflation.” But in recent months, the price growth of other construction inputs has not moderated, except for cement, whose prices fell somewhat after the jump.
According to Mortazavi, the worrying point for the housing market is that if the government’s plan to build one million housing units a year becomes operational, the first negative effect it will have is an unreasonable increase in wages; Because since 1390, when about 760,000 residential units were built, we have not faced any change in construction. We do not have a skilled workforce of one million, and the increase in demand for labor in this sector will lead to an increase in wages.
Therefore, in September, the average price of one square meter of a residential unit in Tehran was 31 million and 703 thousand tomans, which compared to the previous month and the same month last year increased by 2.4 percent and 30.5 percent, respectively. The number of transactions in the month was about 7.8 thousand, which is an increase of 41.6 percent compared to the previous month and a decrease of 8 percent compared to the same month last year.
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