According to Tejarat News, the housing market has experienced unbridled growth in the past few years along with the price increase in parallel markets. The reports of the central bank also show that in recent months, parallel to the increase in the dollar price and the growth of the country’s inflation, the construction industry has also maintained its upward trend.
Mansour Ghaibi, an expert on the housing market, told Tejarat News about this trend: “For a market like housing, which has more than 100 to 120 items of the economy and can advance the economic cycle, 10,000 units for transactions is not a good figure at all.” The number of building permits issued is also at its minimum.
He continued: Real estate traders have somehow pulled back to invest cautiously. In addition to the fact that this volume of transactions in one month of the year is not a favorable statistic, the concern is that more than 80% of them were bought again by traders.
Ghaibi also explained about the relationship between the housing economy and the parallel market of the dollar: unfortunately, the housing issue has always grown with competing markets, including the dollar, but when these economic indicators subside, it is not possible to restore the prices in the housing market, and it keeps itself until the market and General economic belief leads to the conclusion that prices are lower.
This housing expert added: I have examined five five-year periods in Iran’s economy, where there was a price increase in the housing market between zero and 220 percent, while prices decreased between zero and 11-15 percent.
He explained in this regard: Therefore, an increase of up to 220% in the best case has a price decrease of between 10 and 15%, and the increase has not been equal to the decrease. This happened because of the unmanaged increase in the price of the dollar in the society, which has been institutionalized in the leading position in the country.
Dollar and housing trends since August 1400
In August 1400, according to the statistics of the Central Bank, the average housing price was 30,970,000 tomans, and the dollar ended its path in this month at the price of 27,600,000 tomans.
From this date until November of this year, in all months, the dollar and real estate have experienced an upward trend. In October 1400, both markets were declining. In Azar 1400, however, a slight divergence can be seen between the two markets, in such a way that the price of the dollar has decreased slightly and the price of housing has increased.
In February 1400, despite the return of the dollar to a lower channel, housing prices continued to rise, and in May 1401, the same procedure was followed.
Markets fall into recession at the beginning of the new year, and probably the significant increase in demand in May has caused the average housing price to increase despite the drop in the dollar price. In February of last year, a similar process was followed and the increase in the number of demands had a dominant effect compared to the decrease of the dollar and increased the price of housing in general.
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