Is it possible to predict the price of Bitcoin by checking Google searches?
There is a common perception among digital currency traders that as the price of bitcoin always increases, so will the number of internet searches related to this digital currency. However, statistics show that in some cases, the increase in Bitcoin-related Internet searches has occurred before the price jump.
To Report Bitcoin Magazine, the marketing agency Semrush, published a report in 2017 showing that the correlation rate between the price of bitcoin and the volume of bitcoin-related searches on Google is 91%. This means that at that time the price of bitcoin would go up and down mainly in parallel with the changes in the volume of internet searches related to the word bitcoin.
While Samrash’s report showed that the price of this digital currency is also growing as the volume of bitcoin-related searches increases, there was no mention in this article as to whether the price of bitcoin could be predicted for the future by analyzing Google data. .
Between April and September 2017 alone, the volume of bitcoin-related Internet searches grew by 450 percent. Samrash had released statistics at the time showing that the number of Google users searching for Bitcoin-related keywords during 2017 was 51.4 million.
Correlation between bitcoin price and Google searches
The most common hypothesis in dealing with this issue is that as the price of bitcoin rises at regular intervals, the volume of related Internet searches also increases. In other words, people are interested in following Bitcoin price jumps. This hypothesis is not wrong, but the data show that sometimes the increase in Internet searches began before the Bitcoin price jumped. On the other hand, it can not be said that the increase in the volume of bitcoin-related searches on Google affects the price.
According to Samrash last year, the correlation rate of Bitcoin with Google searches in the 15 months between January 2020 and April 2021 (December 98 to April 1400), taking into account the total number of global Internet users was 82% and 79% for American users. The volume of bitcoin searches on Google in 2021 was about 7 times more than the “dollar” and 42 times more than the “euro”. Of course, keep in mind that bitcoin is still an emerging phenomenon, and naturally people search on Google to learn more about it.
The difference between the volume of bitcoin-dollar searches in the United States is greater than in the rest of the world, and people in the United States search less about their national currency. According to statistics from American Google users, the volume of bitcoin-related searches in this country is 57 times more than the dollar and 70 times more than the euro.
The jump in the price of Bitcoin last year helped make the digital currency more popular, and data from many forecasting websites also show that people expect this upward trend to continue into 2022.
Leading websites dealing with bitcoin and digital currencies have reported that their number of visits has increased over the past year. Kevin Market Cap, Binance and Kevin Base were the most visited digital currency websites in 2021, respectively. Meanwhile, Kevin Market Cup reports that its average monthly visit, which was about 60 million between 2017 and 2021, has reached 194 million during 2021.
Increase bitcoin-related searches on Google
During the Bitcoin price jump in 2017, the ranking of the keyword “Bitcoin” in Google Trends reached 100. The rate of change of searches related to each keyword in Google Trends tool is between zero and one hundred. The benchmark was at level 70 between January and May 2021 (December 99 to May 1400), when the bitcoin jumped to a record high of $ 64,000. It is worth mentioning that in this evaluation, the changes in the global search volume of the word Bitcoin over the past 5 years have been examined.
The “Bitcoin Price” keyword rank in Google Trends is now at 21, which means that the search volume of this keyword has a lot of room for growth. In other words, the amount of bitcoin searches on Google can grow as the price continues to rise.
As more people watch the price of bitcoin rise and at the same time feel that they are missing out on a special opportunity, the volume of bitcoin searches also increases. Therefore, it is natural for bitcoin searches to be higher when the price was above $ 50,000 than when bitcoin was trading at less than $ 20,000.
The price of Bitcoin is now less than $ 45,000, and the search volume for the keyword “Bitcoin Price” in Google Trends is at level 21. The simultaneous fall in price and bitcoin searches on Google shows that some people have lost interest in this digital currency.
The correlation between price and Google searches is undeniable, and the mutation of each is reflected in the other. So it might be a good idea to look at changes in bitcoin-related searches in the future; This is because the next jump in the amount of bitcoin searches on Google may occur before the price of this digital currency increases.