Predicting the housing market downturn in 1401 / The housing market will fall asleep for 3 years?
According to Tejarat News, a housing market expert believes that the increase in construction costs and the lack of an effective applicant will lead to a housing recession in 1401. Of course, if the Barjam is revived, the national currency is strengthened and the applicants’ purchasing power is increased, the market will gradually prosper, but this process will take two to three years.
Seyed Mohammad Mortazavi stated: In my opinion, with the negative pulses received from the economic situation and inflation in recent months, we can not hope to control the cost of housing. The price of construction materials rose. In the last month or two, it has been announced that the rate of construction tolls by municipalities will increase. On the other hand, with the increase in social security costs, whispers of rising prices of branches and service devices, and finally wages, which increased by 57% for next year, which will certainly have a direct and significant impact on the cost of housing.
Probability of compensating for housing price arrears in some cities
He added: “Despite the promises made to control housing prices, there is no good outlook for the current trend.” Next year, we will definitely have an increase in the cost of housing at the level of inflation, which affects the selling price of newly built units. This growth will be more pronounced, especially in areas and cities where prices are low, as there is a possibility of compensating for the backlog. Growth may be lower in sectors where land prices have risen sharply in recent years.
The housing market expert stressed that he did not see the right conditions for the National Housing Movement: “Increasing the price of construction inputs for construction groups in the housing production and supply jump plan will be problematic.” Another negative point is that last year the contracts of the National Housing Movement with the private sector were not implemented and we rarely saw the conclusion of a memorandum in this regard.
The price of 4.5 million Tomans of the National Housing Movement does not correspond to reality
Mortazavi says: “Many projects of the National Housing Movement have remained on the ground due to the lack of specific contracts, and now with the increase in prices, new contracts must be concluded. If this had been done last year, we would have largely left inflation behind.
The fact that the government insists on the price of 4.5 million Tomans per square meter of the National Housing Movement units, especially in the situation where builders are involved in inflation, wages are to increase by 57% next year and 4200 Tomans currency has been removed from people’s livelihood basket. does not have.”
He called the Vienna talks an influential factor on the housing market and said: “We hope that Borjam will reach a conclusion and we will see its effects on the country’s economy.” If the sanctions are lifted, we will gradually see the strengthening of the national currency and the increase in people’s income to buy housing. Of course, this process may take two to three years. This means that the housing market will continue to stagnate for the next three years.
The price of each meter of house in Tehran is 33 million Tomans
Therefore, according to the report, in February 1400, the average price of one square meter of housing in Tehran was 33 million and 60 thousand tomans, which increased by 0.4 and 16.4 percent, respectively, compared to the previous month and the same period of the previous year.
According to the Central Bank, the number of transactions in this month was about 8.5 thousand items, which shows a decrease of 13.1 percent compared to the previous month and an increase of 117.8 percent compared to the same month last year.
Source: ایسنا