Wall Street Journal: US withdrawal from Burjam / US has no choice but to return to nuclear deal to reduce oil prices

According to a reporter of Fars News Agency’s International Economics Group, quoted by the newspaper Wall street JournalThe Biden administration’s position on the nuclear deal with Iran has changed from a year ago. In January 2021, the Biden administration promised to return to the IAEA and resume the nuclear deal with Iran, which had been scrapped by the previous US administration.

Biden had promised at the time that a resumption of the new nuclear deal would be the first step in talks with Iran, and Jack Sullivan, then the US government’s national security adviser, said a return to the nuclear deal would lead to longer, stronger agreements with Iran. شد.

The Wall Street Journal says: “But now, 12 months later, the most likely outcome of US diplomatic action is a more limited agreement than promised.

Many Republicans in the United States say a limited deal with Iran would impose fewer restrictions on its nuclear activities and lead to more sanctions and concessions. In fact, the political truth is that for Biden’s government, even as the congressional election approaches, even a bad deal with Iran can be a savior.

One of the reasons that can lead the US government to reach an agreement with Iran is oil. According to the US Department of Energy, the price of oil on the world market has risen from an average of $ 42 in 2020 to an average of $ 71 in 2021, and now the price of this energy carrier has even exceeded $ 88.

The increase has pushed up the price of gasoline and other energy carriers in the United States and has negatively affected the president’s popularity.

US officials are now helpless to find a way to control prices and lower them, especially for gasoline, for the people of the country, and an agreement with Iran and the subsequent return of Iranian oil to the world market could be one of their ways to lower gasoline prices. .

Iran is one of the largest and most powerful oil countries in the world, and its oil exports have dropped significantly due to US sanctions. In 2020, Iran’s oil production even reached less than 2 million barrels per day; Because of sanctions, Iran’s hand was tied to world markets.

The Wall Street Journal reports that this is a temporary situation and that it can quickly increase its oil exports without putting more pressure on Iran’s oil customers. داردIran has a lot of oil that can enter the world market quickly. These reserves of Iran are kept on a floating basis and estimates indicate that their volume is equivalent to 120 million barrels of oil, which is equivalent to more than one day of world consumption.

Experts also predict that Iran could increase its oil production in the short term.

Iranian officials have officially announced that they want to increase their oil production to a level of 4 million barrels per day by the spring of next year.

Such an increase in oil production in the current situation could really change the market situation. At present, the world demand for oil exceeds the supply and oil producers are facing difficulties in supplying this basic commodity.

The New York Times recently reported that despite the efforts of oil-producing countries to increase production, OPEC Plus members are struggling to increase their supply to the world market according to the plan to increase 400,000 barrels per day per month and can not meet this figure. Therefore, the entry of more Iranian oil into the market will increase the volume of oil supply and is predicted to be able to reduce oil prices by 10%. Of course, this issue is conditional on the lifting of US sanctions against Iran, which, of course, the Biden government has the ability to do.

These calculations are now before the Biden administration and can be an incentive to push the United States to engage with Iran and give it concessions, and it could even be a good reason for the United States to rely on it at home to revive BRICS.

According to Reuters, the US Goldman Sachs Bank recently predicted that soon, in the first three months of 2022, we will see a record oil price break and triple digits.

The JP Morgan Institute has made a similar forecast of $ 90 for oil prices.

Experts say Libya’s oil production has increased and the potential for rising prices is so strong that it has not been able to stem the rise in oil prices.

On the other hand, the market expected the Omicron outbreak to keep oil prices low with the prospect of declining demand, although in the early days of the news of the emergence of the Omicron Corona virus, we saw that oil prices were declining, even $ 10 a day. It fell, but soon the engine of rising oil prices on the world market started again, and today it is even higher than before the Omicron outbreak.

According to Rashatoudi, one of the tools that the United States has previously used to influence the global oil market was the extraction of its strategic oil reserves. A few weeks ago, the United States announced that it wanted to extract 50 million barrels of oil from these reserves, but experts say that this issue could not stop the price from rising. So US tools to influence the global market are very limited, and even if it wants to use its strategic reserves again, it will not be able to control oil prices for long.

In fact, one of the factors that will lead the American side to an agreement with Iran is the closed hand of the United States and the lack of tools to influence the global oil market.

Experts say that the market is currently facing a shortage of one million barrels per day and this volume will be very difficult to supply even by major oil producers, because in recent years, especially during the Corona crisis, large oil companies have a shortage of revenue. They have fallen due to falling prices and the volume of oil investments around the world has dropped significantly, and this is not something that can be offset in the short term.

The lifting of sanctions on Iran can quickly increase our country’s exports to 2.5 million barrels per day before the sanctions and balance the market, at least for a while.

* Sajjad Zamani Alisha

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