Where is the housing price going?

Housing prices in 1399 exceeded analysts’ expectations. If from the beginning of the year based on growth Inflation Or liquidity, inflation expectations were considered, imagining the current state of the market Housing It was not predictable. Even considering the price of the dollar, Growth The housing market was beyond expectations. In fact, there was an emotional current in the housing market, and therefore the possibility of falling prices was not unexpected, which was observed in December; Because from the beginning of this year House price In Tehran, it increased by an average of 10% per month, which is a shocking 70% growth in total.

According to Fararu, since mid-November, influenced by international political developments and the hope of opening in Burjam, he has created the impression that oil revenues are rising and currency prices are falling. The temporary impact of this speculation is in the form of a price drop of about 20% currency Showed himself. Indicator The stock market also fell about 30 percent before that, and prices for other capital goods, including housing, fell.

Mustafa Gholi Khosravi, president of the Union of Real Estate Advisors, told Fararo that housing prices have fallen by 10 to 15 percent in the last two months. It has various issues, in general, housing from the four components of gold, currency, stock exchange and pregnancy Energy It is affected and a change in them can affect housing prices.

Emphasizing that the number of sellers these days is much higher than the number of buyers, he added: “Given the decline in housing, many homeowners who investment They have entered the housing market, selling for fear of further declines in property prices, but buyers, on the other hand, are hoping that prices will fall further by the end of the year. It can affect further price reductions.

The head of the union of real estate consultants, noting that with the removal of zones 1, 3 and 6 from the statistics of Tehran, the price in Tehran will decrease a lot, added: Zone one, considering that it is located in Shemiran and there are very luxurious and large properties, prices It is very high, Zone 3, which includes the Pasdaran, has always had high prices, and in Zone 6, which is mainly commercial and office real estate, the prices are high. If we remove these three zones, the price per meter of housing in Tehran From 27 million Tomans Ministry of Roads and City Planning Announced in November, it will be much less.

Seyed Mahmoud Fatemi Aghda, a housing market expert, in a conversation with Fararo, pointing out that the decrease in housing prices can be assessed in two ways, said: “First of all, if housing construction policies by Government and Parliament If the housing is in the right direction, housing can definitely experience stability and price reduction next year, in this regard, a comprehensive plan to organize the production and distribution of housing should be implemented, on the other hand, if the remaining units Mehr House If it is completed and the National Housing Action Plan goes well, we can hope that housing will be in order next year.

Pointing out that the second aspect is also related to the situation of the parallel housing markets, he added: “It is very important for the gold, coin, currency and stock markets to prosper or not, if they can.” Liquidity Attract and for Fund If the investment is attractive, liquidity will flow out of housing and go to those markets.

Emphasizing that housing has undergone a declining trend in the last 40 days, Fatemi Aqda said: “The supply and demand debate in the housing market is not balanced and there is always more demand. Now, apart from the construction debate, recently Taxation Of the vacant houses mentioned, although this is considered positive in general, but what is important is how it is implemented, in fact, it is very difficult to identify vacant houses in metropolises, and this plan must be well implemented so that Be able to achieve the goals set for it.

This University professor It was reminded: the cooperation of agencies involved in this issue, including municipalities and service organizations, including electricity, water, Gas And Phone It can help implement this plan, and if aunt’s homes are really identified and they are sent into the supply cycle, whether for sale or rent, they can undoubtedly help to stabilize housing prices on a sustainable basis.